Rethinking my Advance Trade Strategy

[mpizza Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close mpizza]

I'm an advance vacation planner. I've got four 2010 weeks already reserved and exchange requests pending for the others. But lately when I see all changes that occurred within the last few months with airlines, II and RCI points, all the great last-minute exchanges, and the fact that I no longer need to be tied to the school schedule, I'm rethinking that mindset.

Any tips for being more flexible? For those that book two months or less out, do you have a general time frame in mind for vacation and then just go where the trade leads you?

Maria

[JLB Please excuse me, I'm a Dick. Not a moron just a Dick Find all posts View Profile Close JLB]

You can't guess what's going to be going on two years from now . . . air fares, etc.

Like us, if you know when you want to vacation, and you know what you will accept, you should take it when you first see it.

Come to think of it, you can't even guess things in the short term. When flights to Florida in January were first available, fuel prices were going out of sight, with no end in sight. Plus, the flights we take have always been booked full. So I booked them.

Now, not all that much later, fuel prices are at a two or three year low and our plane fares are way down.

[ArtsieAng Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close ArtsieAng]

IMHO, if you can plan your trips within the flexchange period, you're likely to get just about anything, especially this year.

The only time that I put in a request is when I'm looking for a prime location, during prime time......But I'm only referring to the most sort after resorts. A few examples.....You'd be wise to put in a request for a prime ski week, at a prime resort, in a prime location. Same goes for winter in the Caribbean, or summer in So California. All of these are likely to show up last minute, as well, but you can't count on it, and they are usually grabbed, immediately.

Hawaii has become more available than lots of other high demand locations. That includes the most sort after resorts. I have a feeling the airlines have much to do with that situation, and it may change.

Since I too am no longer tied to the school calendar, I find that going to summer locations in Sept., is incredably easy. You can get the best resorts, without too much difficulty. Same thing with many East Coast locations, and Europe. Not dealing with the calendar really increases your chances for a great exchange.

[GrayFal Silver Contributor and supermoderator Find all posts View Profile Close GrayFal]

I pulled up my planner - and I seem to even be thinking of 2011!

It is just hard to decide WHAT to do! I have been to places I enjoy and want to go back to - but there are so many other places I want to go to as well.

Plus, I enjoy the planning - reading about an area and learning all there is to now - and deciding what to do.
I think last minute trips to new places can make that difficult.....

We are also seeing a 'bump in the road' with our current economy - people making last minute change of plans - canceling exchanges and late deposits of weeks that didn't rent. I think we will just have to see if these trends contune.....

[Twinkstarr Member Find all posts View Profile Close Twinkstarr]

Maybe plan out x number of weeks and leave one or two to "play" with. Catch one of Lawren's special sightings, that no one seems to take advantage of.

[BocaBum99 Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close BocaBum99]

I used to think that the best deals are found for vacationers who plan more than a year in advance of check in.

Now, I've learned that the entire timeshare industry is set up so that the best deals are found last minute.

I do some advance planning, but now, I mostly do exchanges within the last 60-days from checkin. You get better locations, better resorts and more variety. You just need to ensure you have a back up plan which is easy to do with an ownership with a point system like Wyndham, WorldMark or Bluegreen. You book something for the dates you want that has no cancellation penalty. Then, if you find something better, you take it and save your points.

This is the key to getting GREAT vacations for very cheap.

[lawren2 Malibu Beach Barbie & A Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close lawren2]

I still live within a school calendar and there are, as Angela and others have stated, specific instances when you should advance plan if there is a need to be somewhere at a certain time and particular resorts you are trying for. Air of course is another consideration.

Maybe it is just the current mindset or a change in the currents at RCI but I'm seeing TONS of things for summer 2009 now that I'd kill for. My 2009 has been scheduled for about 18 months because that is the way RCI has trained it's best of Pavlov's dogs. Now I have to cancel one because a die for (IMHO) exchange came up for the same week.

If you can "free schedule" last minute exchanges you can do them very inexpensively, cheap weeks, cheap points, ACs or Bonus Weeks and come away with some nice gems in almost all the exchange companies.

[ArtsieAng Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close ArtsieAng]

BB


Now, I've learned that the entire timeshare industry is set up so that the best deals are found last minute.

Without question, this is true.....And let's not forget, during the flexchange period, and often times shoulder weeks, a studio can get you anything from a 1-3 bdrm. If you put in a request with II, you can only request the same size of your deposit. The exception being if a particular resort only offers a higher number of bedrooms, than your deposited week.

[short Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close short]

2 Months or less.

I plan almost all vacations 2 months or less. Occationally 8 months ahead if I want something specific or need to coordinate with others.

Two weeks ago I booked two weeks in the Marriott in France for mid-January 2009. Since then I have booked 2 FF coach tickets for my young adult kids and 1 FF Business ticket for my DH all on the same flight. I am monitoring availablility for myself but I have lots of possiblities of getting myself to Paris on any number of airlines by cash or miles.

One year ago I would not have even imagined this trip as we are going to visit one of my DD friends who is doing foreign study.

Where we not going to Paris(Burrrrrr) I would have considered Hawaii or the Carribian.

Short

[JLB Please excuse me, I'm a Dick. Not a moron just a Dick Find all posts View Profile Close JLB]

Let me get in the same line, sorta . . . by saying that I do, in fact, keep searching up until the day we leave.

Occasionally something better does show up at the last minute, like it did last year . . . but not very often. The last time before that . . . when something better than what we booked, say 18 months, in advance showed up . . . was 1999.

In my documentation of availability for January in SW FL through, peak availability was as follows:

2004: 18 months out
2005: 19 & 17 months out
2006: 21 & 19 months out
2007: 21, 20, 16 & 14 months out
2008: 17 months out
2009: 23 & 20 months out

Comparing with those with II over the years, their peak is much closer to travel date, I always suspected because of Search First. Of course, if everyone searches first, with depositing, it stands to reason that confirming would be much later.

RCI has emphasized early deposit and booking much more.

But, people are people, and it is hard for most people to plan vacations ahead.

[BocaBum99 Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close BocaBum99]

Let me get in the same line, sorta . . . by saying that I do, in fact, keep searching up until the day we leave.

Occasionally something better does show up at the last minute, like it did last year . . . but not very often. The last time before that . . . when something better than what we booked, say 18 months, in advance showed up . . . was 1999.

In my documentation of availability for January in SW FL through, peak availability was as follows:

2004: 18 months out
2005: 19 & 17 months out
2006: 21 & 19 months out
2007: 21, 20, 16 & 14 months out
2008: 17 months out
2009: 23 & 20 months out

Comparing with those with II over the years, their peak is much closer to travel date, I always suspected because of Search First. Of course, if everyone searches first, with depositing, it stands to reason that confirming would be much later.

RCI has emphasized early deposit and booking much more.

But, people are people, and it is hard for most people to plan vacations ahead.

I think you are only speaking of RCI. I get trades less than 60-days using II and other independents that are FAR superior to anything I can get greater than 60-days. That's because the trading power limits and size limits go away. In addition, last minute HOA and unrented developer inventory goes into the exchange system as well.

Same is true of many mini-systems that provide discounts and/or cheap bonus time for last minute bookings. In those cases, there are a lot of last minute cancellations and not as much competition for it as farther out in time.

Lastly, check out the stuff that Lawren posts in the last minute RCI exchanges with dog traders. There are fantastic deals to be had there.

[lawren2 Malibu Beach Barbie & A Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close lawren2]

Let me get in the same line, sorta . . . by saying that I do, in fact, keep searching up until the day we leave.

Occasionally something better does show up at the last minute, like it did last year . . . but not very often. The last time before that . . . when something better than what we booked, say 18 months, in advance showed up . . . was 1999.

In my documentation of availability for January in SW FL through, peak availability was as follows:

2004: 18 months out
2005: 19 & 17 months out
2006: 21 & 19 months out
2007: 21, 20, 16 & 14 months out
2008: 17 months out
2009: 23 & 20 months out

Comparing with those with II over the years, their peak is much closer to travel date, I always suspected because of Search First. Of course, if everyone searches first, with depositing, it stands to reason that confirming would be much later.

RCI has emphasized early deposit and booking much more.

But, people are people, and it is hard for most people to plan vacations ahead.

I would agree with you except for the astounding phenomona of the on-going search. One of our members pulled an outstanding trade days before check-in for Easter week on Marco Island. I had taken a nice little 1BDRM on Sanibel with an on-line search 6 months prior. SHE just kept rejecting things until she ended up withh an HGVC. Took a lot of guts to stick it out and a lot of what she was throwing back was completely acceptable.

Because you never enter an on-going you wouldn't experience it but the matches keep on coming right up until check-in...where as on-line we can't see what is there less than 4 days out.

FWIW I have 2 units on hold now for New Years week with absolute dogs that cost me next to nothing. I have really come around to thinking that if you cannot plan 18 months or more in advance then 14 days is the way to go with RCI and not just for Hawaii anymore.

[JLB Please excuse me, I'm a Dick. Not a moron just a Dick Find all posts View Profile Close JLB]

Having long been a fan/follower of the 14-45/Day Window, I agree that there can be some great stuff through RCI close in. I already mentioned that I sometimes switch to it.

I have also already said that systems other than RCI tend to do better closer to check-in date.

For SW FL in January, the most resorts available on any day in December, for the next month, have been 3, 1, 1, 0 and 2. For the 10 years I have searched for SW FL in January, I have only found something better in the 14-day once . . . last year. I have already mentioned that it may happen again this year.

I certainly would never say something like, don't worry, you'll always get something really nice for Week 1 in Florida in the 14-day window.

When you look at RCI's new Almost Everything You Wanna Know search system, more is available in the next 12 months, by far, than in the 13-24 month range.

That is a generalization dealing with gross numbers.

Every area is different, with different peaks, different levels of deposits, and different deposit habits. The best answer is the one that applies to where you want to go when you want to go there.

For us, the short answer is that I have always gotten what we need, and we have enjoyed our vacations for 20 years.

[JLB Please excuse me, I'm a Dick. Not a moron just a Dick Find all posts View Profile Close JLB]

What's kinda funny is that Inside Guy also has encouraged me to use an Ongoing Search. He has also suggested a resort that we will probably enjoy.

Well, we are going to that resort this year and next, as it is one that shows up the way I search.

We are looking forward to it as there are several couples from here with winter places in that area, and they are golfers!!!!

[JLB Please excuse me, I'm a Dick. Not a moron just a Dick Find all posts View Profile Close JLB]

Speaking of the 45-day Window, if you have a better trader and a lesser trader deposited with RCI, look at availability by month.

For me, this month and next are the same, m/l, searching with either deposit.

Then, for February trading power comes into play.

Neat to be able to see that.