Rethinking my Advance Trade Strategy

[BocaBum99 Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close BocaBum99]

Having long been a fan/follower of the 14-45/Day Window, I agree that there can be some great stuff through RCI close in. I already mentioned that I sometimes switch to it.

I have also already said that systems other than RCI tend to do better closer to check-in date.

For SW FL in January, the most resorts available on any day in December, for the next month, have been 3, 1, 1, 0 and 2. For the 10 years I have searched for SW FL in January, I have only found something better in the 14-day once . . . last year. I have already mentioned that it may happen again this year.

I certainly would never say something like, don't worry, you'll always get something really nice for Week 1 in Florida in the 14-day window.

When you look at RCI's new Almost Everything You Wanna Know search system, more is available in the next 12 months, by far, than in the 13-24 month range.

That is a generalization dealing with gross numbers.

Every area is different, with different peaks, different levels of deposits, and different deposit habits. The best answer is the one that applies to where you want to go when you want to go there.

For us, the short answer is that I have always gotten what we need, and we have enjoyed our vacations for 20 years.

I understand what you are saying.

What I AM saying is that as a matter of a general strategy across all exchange systems and mini point systems that it is possible to get consistently better trades with lower cost traders using a 60-day or less strategy than with a search greater than a year from check in strategy.

The low cost of getting the superior trade with a nothing trader far outweighs any tough exchanges a person can get with a longer duration exchange strategy.

Obviously, the best overall strategy is to use a combination of both strategies depending on what you are trying to get.

When I use the blended strategy, out of 20 or so exchanges or timeshares I stay in per year, 80+% are booked less than 60-days from check in.

Just this week, I caught (with lots of help) and released a 2br Maui Marriott for New Year's week because I am already booked at another resort my wife wants to go to. I have no trader in my entire portfolio of 100 plus timeshares than can get a 2 bedroom New Year's week at the Maui Marriott greater than 60-days from check in. Not many people do.

[mpizza Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close mpizza]

Thanks to all for your expert advice and experience. I'm going to incorporate the blended approach, book a few in advance with my super traders, but switch my mindset to leave some vacation time open for last-minute surprises.

I agree alot of the recent sightings are due to the current economy, but I also think quality timeshare inventory has grown so much in the last few years that there many more units available.

Maria

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

FF miles for January to Europe is not a use of miles I would make. Paid tickets can be found cheap at that time of year. One possible exception would be AA miles, as AA is the only airline that charges less miles offseason to Europe, but since those miles are also good in shoulder season when paid tickets cost more, I would be inclined to use them then.

I plan almost all vacations 2 months or less. Occationally 8 months ahead if I want something specific or need to coordinate with others.

Two weeks ago I booked two weeks in the Marriott in France for mid-January 2009. Since then I have booked 2 FF coach tickets for my young adult kids and 1 FF Business ticket for my DH all on the same flight. I am monitoring availablility for myself but I have lots of possiblities of getting myself to Paris on any number of airlines by cash or miles.

One year ago I would not have even imagined this trip as we are going to visit one of my DD friends who is doing foreign study.

Where we not going to Paris(Burrrrrr) I would have considered Hawaii or the Carribian.

Short

[JLB Please excuse me, I'm a Dick. Not a moron just a Dick Find all posts View Profile Close JLB]

I will say this . . . based on 20 years of listening to hundreds of owners' complaints concerning not getting exchanges they want.

I have surmised that the typical timeshare owner, one who does not obsess on these forums every day, calls the exchange company on relatively short notice (as is being encouraged in this thread). They ask for something fairly specific, like I wanna go to Gulf Shores next month on the 14th.

I guess what I hear from them is not what y'all experience, likely because y'all know a whole lot more about what you're doing than they do.

What I hear is, "I never can get anything from . . . . " Essentially, the same results we got the first few years, 20 years ago.

So, I do not advise doing that, waiting til the last minute, as a standard of practice.

Looking at the 45-Day window for SW FL today, I still would not advise it.

It is crapshoot in which the crapshooter normally loses.

OTOH, I have shown to some of those people exchanges to where they want to go when they want to go there, but for 1-2 years from now. Truthfully, it did not register with them, that they could get what they want if they plan a little further out. So, they don't even try.

The fact that we are even having this discussion, that it takes a strategy to get what you want, is evidence that exchanging involves more than many/most people want to do.

[lawren2 Malibu Beach Barbie & A Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close lawren2]

So, I do not advise doing that, waiting til the last minute, as a standard of practice.

Looking at the 45-Day window for SW FL today, I still would not advise it.

It is crapshoot in which the crapshooter normally loses.

OTOH, I have shown to some of those people exchanges to where they want to go when they want to go there, but for 1-2 years from now. Truthfully, it did not register with them, that they could get what they want if they plan a little further out. So, they don't even try.

The fact that we are even having this discussion, that it takes a strategy to get what you want, is evidence that exchanging involves more than many/most people want to do.

Which is why timeshares have a horrible reputation amongst the general public but people like us are generally very happy with them.

Are you calling me obsessive?

[JLB Please excuse me, I'm a Dick. Not a moron just a Dick Find all posts View Profile Close JLB]

http://www.timeshareforums.com/forum...tml#post292550

I certainly would never say something like, don't worry, you'll always get something really nice for Week 1 in Florida in the 14-day window.

[bnoble Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close bnoble]

To be fair, though, you and the OP are talking apples and oranges. You have something very specific that you want---SW Florida. In January. At better resorts. Nothing else will do.

The OP was thinking more will-o-the-wisp, and got some good advice about being opportunistic.

I think it's fair to say that both perspectives are correct.

[BocaBum99 Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close BocaBum99]

To be fair, though, you and the OP are talking apples and oranges. You have something very specific that you want---SW Florida. In January. At better resorts. Nothing else will do.

The OP was thinking more will-o-the-wisp, and got some good advice about being opportunistic.

I think it's fair to say that both perspectives are correct.

I completely agree. A potential timeshare owner needs to identify how they want to vacation and construct the proper timeshare portfolio that has the highest probability of meeting their stated vacation needs at the lowest possible total cost.

If they need something specific that is very hard to get, they should buy there or find a trader that is likely to get it every year. If they want to travel for the cheapest cost and are very flexible, the best deals can be found closer to checkin. And, the availability abounds, just not in every possible location and resort.

[lawren2 Malibu Beach Barbie & A Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close lawren2]

http://www.timeshareforums.com/forum...tml#post292550

I don't know about that...as I reported on your SW FL thread for January some VERY nice things showed up last night. An HGVC Marco & Key West.

I had an acceptable Sanibel on-hold for week 52 a couple of days ago.

If someone is flexible almost anywhere can be had last minute if they are searching at the right time or have a cadre of people also watching, obsessively.

What are friends for? and we are neglecting on-going searches entirely!

I just confirmed a week 52 in Newport, RI today for me and mine. Sitting on-line at 9AM yesterday morning. I think that is much more difficult than a week 1 or 2.

[JLB Please excuse me, I'm a Dick. Not a moron just a Dick Find all posts View Profile Close JLB]

I agree. As I have always said, the more flexible a person is, the better TS will work for them.

&, vice versa, like those I have talked about who have given up on exchanging after one phone asking to go to a specific resort, especially at the last minute, and then gave up on the concept when that did not work, the more rigid you are the less likely TS will work for you.

The only correction to your assessment of me being that we have never demanded, and have almost never received, a better resort.

To be fair, though, you and the OP are talking apples and oranges. You have something very specific that you want---SW Florida. In January. At better resorts. Nothing else will do.

The OP was thinking more will-o-the-wisp, and got some good advice about being opportunistic.

I think it's fair to say that both perspectives are correct.

[JLB Please excuse me, I'm a Dick. Not a moron just a Dick Find all posts View Profile Close JLB]

As for alla youse, OK, you have tag-teamed me into submission. Y'all know the best way for me to do what I do.

Now, release the choke hold and let the blood flow back to my decrepit, feeble brain.

Merry Christmas, and all the other varieties of the season.

[JLB Please excuse me, I'm a Dick. Not a moron just a Dick Find all posts View Profile Close JLB]

OK, I gotta ask.

What's in RI the last week of Dec?

I just confirmed a week 52 in Newport, RI today for me and mine. Sitting on-line at 9AM yesterday morning. I think that is much more difficult than a week 1 or 2.

[lawren2 Malibu Beach Barbie & A Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close lawren2]

OK, I gotta ask.

What's in RI the last week of Dec?

Beyond even colder weather than I get here?

The mansions are all christmas-fied to the max. Tours, etc.

You know if I could have gotten decent air at this late date I'd head for somewhere warm. I may not look like Malibu Beach Barbie but in my heart that is who I am.

So we dress warmly and head even further north for some Christmas spirit this year.

[JLB Please excuse me, I'm a Dick. Not a moron just a Dick Find all posts View Profile Close JLB]

Well, if you're really hard up, we still have a spare room the first week.

[bnoble Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close bnoble]

your assessment of me being that we have never demanded, and have almost never received, a better resort

Sorry, I mis-spoke. A better resort only in comparison to the "lesser resorts" that you frequently post availability of. (I think that's the term you use.)