OBX resales test: t/s resells down only marginally

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

Some look at the timeshare bargain basement of eBay and conclude that the bottom has fallen out of the timeshare market generally. It may have for certain areas, but certainly not all. In running my usual test of the area I am familiar with, the Outer Banks, it is down marginally but still cooking along rather well for the state of the overall economy.

As usual, I looked at only Nags Head and Kill Devil Hills. The eight resorts in these towns are all oceanfront and all member-controlled, with the developers long out of the picture. I did not include Duck or Kitty Hawk due to developer control at some resorts and developer sales or developer resales skewing the market. I also did not include Hatteras as its one timeshare is tiny (only four units as I recall). Dare County records are good for actual resale records because the procedures of the local land transfer tax, unlike the state tax stamps elsehwere, have more strict procedures like requiring a sworn affidavit as to the amount received, which are usually done by closing attorneys and correspond with the figures on the 1099's that are filed with the IRS, so they are usually accurate.

I looked at the Spring period, the months of March, April, and May for the years 2007 and 2011.

Total resales in both areas were 65 in 2007 for these three months and 49 in 2011, a 25% decrease. These numbers do not include deedbacks to HOA's or owner to PCC deeds.

As the prices and specific weeks selling, here is the breakdown:

2011

Kill Devil Hills

Prime Red: 14 sold, average price: $7,085
Pink: 11 sold, average price: $1591
white: 3 sold, average price: $100
blue: 8 sold, average price: $412 (distorted by a T'giving wk at $2700)

Nage Head

Prime red: 1 sold price $5,700
Pink: 7 sold, average price $1,742
white: 0 sold
blue: 5 sold, average price $140

2007

Kill Devil Hills

Prime red: 13 sold, average price $6,884
pink: 16 sold, average price $2,867
white: 6 sold, average price $633
blue: 9 sold, average price $655

Nags Head

prime red; 1 sold, $6,700
pink: 10 sold, average price $1,964
white: 2 sold, average price $225
blue: 8 sold, average price $229

As to HOA transactions, in 2007 Nags Head had 10 HOA resales and no deedbacks , while in 2011 it had 4 HOA resales and 3 deedbacks in these months. Kill Devil Hills had 7 HOA resales and no deedbacks in 2007 and also 7 HOA resales and no deedbacks these months in 2011

As to PCC transactions. in 2007 Nags Head had 1 week deeded in to a PCC (pink) and none out, while in 2011 there were no PCC transactions in or out. In Kill Devil Hills, there were 12 weeks deeded to PCC's (1 prime, 6 pink, 1 white, 4 blue) in 2007 and 2 deeded out, while in 2011 there were 7 weeks deeded in to PCC's (2 pink, 5 blue) and 3 weeks (2 white, 1 blue) deeded out.

So, in general, the timeshare resale market on the NC Outer Banks seems relatively stable.

[bravesfan Member Find all posts View Profile Close bravesfan]

how does the number of sales made in the "market" you look at compare to EBAY in total # of sales?

[timeos2 Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close timeos2]

More important than "steady sales", which are actually down, is how many are being offered for sale? That number is likely way up - and there are no buyers thus no sales. Looking only at completed sales gives a false picture of the real market.

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

how does the number of sales made in the "market" you look at compare to EBAY in total # of sales?

eBay represents a small fraction of the market in this area, as likely in most areas. Overall, eBay will have more sales than any one local area, because it is national in scope, but if one totalled all sales sources nationally and compared that to eBay, then eBay would be a pygmy in comparision.

The only real valid comparision is to look at the same geographical scope of different sales outlets. If you compare a national outlet vs. local outlets, then the national outlet is likely to be larger simply because of geographical scope.

And of course the other consideration is that some local timeshare markets are going to be doing better than others. One can even see that somewhat on eBay, where for example summer OBX weeks, even on eBay tend to bring $2K+ while some of the best weeks in overbuilt areas go on eBay for $1.

eBay is the bargain basement of timeshare resales, a great place to go to buy but a terrible place to sell.

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

I don't know how one could quantify your speculation as I do not know that there is any way to pull out numbers on how many weeks were being offered for sale at some time in the past. One could compute it from major sources for the present, but I do not know of any way to objectively get a number from an earlier time to compare that with.

Some time ago, I did do a comparision at the same point in time of the OBX weeks offered at major online sites in comparision to the local brick and mortar broker, and the local brick and mortar broker beat all the online sources combined, hands down.

Completed sales indicates that there are buyers out there, and is the usual test for the real estate market.

And as to any big groundswell of people wanting out, the most significant data points are comparing combined deeds into PCC's and HOA deedbacks in the two periods. In 2007 for these 8 resorts during this 3 month period there were a total of 13 deedbacks to HOAs plus deeds to PCC's. For the same 3 month period in 2011, that number fell to 10. That hardly suggests a lot of owners trying to get out.

RCI's machinations have been encouraging timesharers who exchange to sell their weeks for several years now, going back prior to 2007, so if you are thinking that Points Lite has set off a new stampede, all they are doing is continuing the existing stampede.

More important than "steady sales", which are actually down, is how many are being offered for sale? That number is likely way up - and there are no buyers thus no sales. Looking only at completed sales gives a false picture of the real market.

[bravesfan Member Find all posts View Profile Close bravesfan]

Generally speaking when someone buys from the developer everyone here says rescind as there are so many for sale for almost nothing on Ebay. What would this group say to someone that just paid an HOA $7,000 for a summer outerbanks week when there are june weeks for sale for a couple hundred bucks on ebay?

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

Generally speaking when someone buys from the developer everyone here says rescind as there are so many for sale for almost nothing on Ebay. What would this group say to someone that just paid an HOA $7,000 for a summer outerbanks week when there are june weeks for sale for a couple hundred bucks on ebay?

eBay is the bargain basement of timesharing. If one is buying, it is absolutely the place to go. If one is selling, on the other hand, they are a fool to use it. The key is whether one is a buyer or a seller.

Early June is not yet prime summer, while late June is.

I had thought that using the eBay bargain basement might be useful to pick up a summer week or two to rent, but in watching eBay this past winter, all the prime summer weeks were going for $2K+, still a good price, but not the giveaways I was hoping for.