Myths of ''highly seasonal resorts''

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

There are sometimes arguments advanced on these boards that if a resort area is not warm all year, then it is ''highly seasonal'' and only summer weeks have value. While this theory may pan out if one goes far enough north, it is not true for the southeastern beaches. I have pointed that out many times based on my knowledge of usage on the OBX. Today, I have received a fax of an RCI report with data they compiled that supports my argument.

Every year RCI prepares an Affiliate Year End Report for each resort which details exchange deposits and usage, among other things. Looking at that report for one of my OBX resorts, the data shows strong usage most of the year. From the beginning of March through Thanksgiving plus the December holidays, the resort is essentially full. Sure there are a few scattered weeks where there are unused units, but the times like mid-July and Memorial Day tend to indicate something like a last minute cancellation rather than no one wanting the week. Even on the fringes of this essentially full usage period, for example, usage is strong. All of March, all of October, and the November weeks through Thanksgiving all show 100% usage for 2005. The weeks with less than 50% usage are only 1-7 and 48-50.

I suspect as one goes through beach resorts farther south, they will find much the same thing.

Ask your resort if they can give you a copy of its Affiliate Year End Report from RCI. If we can collect data from more of them, perhaps we can shatter a commonly repeated myth.

[BoardGirl Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close BoardGirl]

That would be fabulous to get that data!!!

I tend to agree with you. While there may be peak visitation times, and there may be people that will only travel during those peak times, there is plenty of interest in resort areas all year round to those of us who hate crowds and aren't bound by the school calendar. There's something for everyone.

[TomandRobin Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close TomandRobin]

I too will agree. We visit Myrtle Beach all times of the year, except Dec, Jan and Feb. The rest of the year its busy at the beach.

[timeos2 Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close timeos2]

Not bad but far from a high demand choice

I too will agree. We visit Myrtle Beach all times of the year, except Dec, Jan and Feb. The rest of the year its busy at the beach.

I certainly am no expert in that area but I can say I couldn't give away a Thanksgiving week this year. We had planned on going, couldn't fit it in our schedule after all, and despite asking at least 12 friends, family and customers if they wanted a free 7 day vacation in a 2 bedroom unit got no takers. Had that been an Orlando resort I'm sure the results would have been different. We enjoy off season at beach areas (as long as you don't want to use the beach!) as we were just at Atlantic City, three years ago at Ocean City, MD, two years ago in Hilton Head, this year was supposed to be Myrtle Beach but they certainly aren't the same as a nice, warm visit to a FL resort in November. After that the difference in desirability (and thus marketability) only gets worse until late April with the better value clearly on the warmer weather or winter activity locations. There is a seasonality and it is a big factor in demand. I'd love to see the annual use reports Steve mentioned for a broad cross section of resorts around the country. Hopefully we can gather those up and post them for comparison. Nothing like some facts to verify or disprove a theory or two.

[shopgirl Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close shopgirl]

I can certainly understand where Carolinian's coming from.

The fact is that baby boomers like us are also empty nesters and we can travel places now that we could not when the kids were in school. There are lots of us and we are getting close to retirement, if we are not already.

Another area that is totally mistaken as a resort area with a lot of low-season weeks is Colorado. We have ski in the winter and and mild temperatures and lots of activities all summer. There isn't much down time. Even those who own weeks that are blue/green were able to ski earlier this season, so those close weeks to ski season turned out to be in ski season this year. When skiing runs all the way into May, which has been happening the last few years, those green weeks are not such a bad deal for those who are determined to ski as long as possible. We have a total of 12 weeks a year that are not considered red.

[Keitht Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Keitht]

There are sometimes arguments advanced on these boards that if a resort area is not warm all year, then it is ''highly seasonal'' and only summer weeks have value. While this theory may pan out if one goes far enough north, it is not true for the southeastern beaches.

Aren't you actually agreeing with the 'seasonal' argument here? Surely, for people who live in the cooler, wetter areas it is warm in the south eastern beach locations. That makes them year round resorts.
It's not purely being warm that makes an area seasonal. For example The Gambia in West Africa is a popular winter sun location for those of us in Northern Europe. The season literally lasts 6 months because outside those months it is either too hot or too wet.
Seasonal resorts are not a myth, they are certainly a reality in large parts of Europe anyway.

[timeos2 Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close timeos2]

Seasonal is a fact

I can certainly understand where Carolinian's coming from.

The fact is that baby boomers like us are also empty nesters and we can travel places now that we could not when the kids were in school. There are lots of us and we are getting close to retirement, if we are not already.

Cindy - I don't doubt there is a base level of demand but it pales compared to a truly year round area like FL or Hawaii. It simply isn't as inviting to the majority of owners/renters - either because they are limited to in season or because they want the beach when they can enjoy the ocean or the ski area when it's likely to have snow. There is a far smaller community that appreciates the slower times or can actually utilize them. The term seasonal describes that phenomenon. It doesn't mean zero demand but it does reflect a much softer demand for the areas that have more distinct weather patterns over the year.

[BocaBum99 Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close BocaBum99]

There is always a statistical problem when demand far exceeds supply. You cannot take any statistical significance from such situations.

As an analogy, let's talk about test scores of children. When they are younger, most kids now take standardized tests. If the test is too easy, then lots of students get perfect scores. And, some students who normally would receive perfect scores miss 1 or 2 questions. If there is a significant percentage of students with perfect scores, the test results are meaningless. Let's say that 50% of the students scores 100% correct responses. Are all those students equally good? Of course not, there is not enough information, the test scores are meaningless. In addition, does this mean that the students who missed one question are in the bottom half of the class? They could have misread a question. So, the answer is "Of course not." The test is meaningless.

The same is true for resorts where there is so little supply that the demand always exceeds it no matter what time of year. The statistics provided do no show any relative degree of fully confirmed. The only way to do that is to measure actual demand. I guarantee that it's seasonal and varies dramatically during various times of the year.

[Jya-Ning Silver Contributor Find all posts View Profile Close Jya-Ning]

Interesting. With RCI exchange report, I will assume the ratio is the week taken/the week deposit to RCI? And the week taken could be last call, extra vacation, exchange, rental? Why not use resort's occupancy rate? They may have check-in check out info, and make it more accurate?

I thought RCI exchange completion rate is over 90%? If that is the case, it means no matter which resort you look, if the week taken is only from the week deposited by exchanger, it will have over 90% over the whole year. There should have no season effect.

Since we accuse RCI takes out desired inventory from deposit pool, is that report indicates even if they take out all summer week and put in all shoulder season, it is still highly desired, and thus they are only doing same to same replace with better developer deposit week?

I really suprise that you use and believe that report and not say that report may mean nothing except used by RCI to cover its rental practice.

Jya-Ning

[tonyg Goomba & Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close tonyg]

New England coastal resorts where there is no nearby skiing have many empty units from late October thru April with the exception of the holiday weeks. We once went to Maine in February and only 7 of the 40 units were occupied. The same situation probably exists for RI and Cape Cod. Winter weeks in these areas have to be a very hard sell.

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

Yes, it often is a matter of perspective. The Windjammer on the OBX has a lot of Canadians owner who come in January and February, because the developer targeted sales for that period to Canadians. For them, weather on the OBX at that time of year must seem quite nice compared to the weather back home.

Aren't you actually agreeing with the 'seasonal' argument here? Surely, for people who live in the cooler, wetter areas it is warm in the south eastern beach locations. That makes them year round resorts.
It's not purely being warm that makes an area seasonal. For example The Gambia in West Africa is a popular winter sun location for those of us in Northern Europe. The season literally lasts 6 months because outside those months it is either too hot or too wet.
Seasonal resorts are not a myth, they are certainly a reality in large parts of Europe anyway.

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

The report does break down the weeks used for exchange (marked ''1-4-1'')
and other uses (marked ''non 1-4-1'' on some tables and ''Mktble'' on others)
All but one of the rentals come in periods of essentially full usage and adjacent weeks are full with just exchangers.

A summer week is not equivalent of a shoulder season week. While demand equals or exceeds supply for both periods, it FAR exceeds supply in the summer when demand skyrockets and deposits drop way off.

Interesting. With RCI exchange report, I will assume the ratio is the week taken/the week deposit to RCI? And the week taken could be last call, extra vacation, exchange, rental? Why not use resort's occupancy rate? They may have check-in check out info, and make it more accurate?

I thought RCI exchange completion rate is over 90%? If that is the case, it means no matter which resort you look, if the week taken is only from the week deposited by exchanger, it will have over 90% over the whole year. There should have no season effect.

Since we accuse RCI takes out desired inventory from deposit pool, is that report indicates even if they take out all summer week and put in all shoulder season, it is still highly desired, and thus they are only doing same to same replace with better developer deposit week?

I really suprise that you use and believe that report and not say that report may mean nothing except used by RCI to cover its rental practice.

Jya-Ning

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

Even those areas that are warm all year are often seasonal. Some time periods have much higher demand than others. I would bet that in Orlando there is LOT more unused inventory in hurricane season than there is on the OBX in weeks 48-50 and 1-7. The availibility tables in the European version of the RCI directory certainly show that there are distinct seasonal patterns to availibility in Florida, for example.

Supply factors also come into play. If the supply in an area can sustain essentially full occupancy most of the year, that dynamic bodes well for timeshare in the area. No matter what the weather conditions, if supply substantially exceeds demand for a significant part of the year, then it can be a problem. This latter situation CAN result from seasonal situations as in the coastal far north or from overbuilding as in the warm all year Canary Islands or Orlando.

Cindy - I don't doubt there is a base level of demand but it pales compared to a truly year round area like FL or Hawaii. It simply isn't as inviting to the majority of owners/renters - either because they are limited to in season or because they want the beach when they can enjoy the ocean or the ski area when it's likely to have snow. There is a far smaller community that appreciates the slower times or can actually utilize them. The term seasonal describes that phenomenon. It doesn't mean zero demand but it does reflect a much softer demand for the areas that have more distinct weather patterns over the year.