Weeks Purists Theory: does this ring true?

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

Your experience seems to be at odds with the majority of travelers I know. Nothing wrong with it just not the norm.

Most of the post you refer to is from published studies, not from ''my experience''.

[BocaBum99 Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close BocaBum99]

Like others, you are ignoring that DAE IS a big player in Australia, and their model is PROVEN to work as a big player, too!

So what? Australia is an extremely small market. (Sorry Sydney).

How is DAE doing in the US? The biggest timeshare market by far?

I was number 1 on my high school tennis team in my Junior and Senior year in high school. That was irrelevant when I went to college where I couldn't even make the JV team.

I'll bet that DAE's global exchange volume is smaller than Orange Lake Country Club exchanges in RCI last year.

[timeos2 Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close timeos2]

We're talking trades not use

How many members in DAE? How many in RCI? II? That is what I mean. The scale is too small to test the theory even if they are the biggest in one area.

There has been a fairly consistant use of the fact that 80% of the deposits are chasing the top 20%. While not all 80% would be considered dogs plenty are not the best or they wouldn't be in that group. And the majority are in the highly seasonal areas rather than what you like consider as "overbuilt". At least in those areas the majority of the weeks would be in the top 40% while the seasonal areas have 50% or more in the dregs categories. It is a trade up for them if they even climb into the 70% mark for an exchange. And if they can't they are the first candidates to bail unless they bought to use rather than trade. And if they aren't trading they don't belong in this thread anyway!

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

The key in a market-based exchange system is supply vs demand.

In what you like to call seasonal areas, the vast majority of weeks have had demand at least equal supply. Yes there may be a coule of months of deep offseason where that is not the case. But it is the overbuilt areas where supply vastly outstrips demand. Where are the areas that Bootleg has told us that availibility is almost always there? Massanutten, Branson, Williamsburg, and Orlando. I have been to three of them and they are all nice areas, but just overbuilt in timeshare. That is why a blue week on Cape Cod trades readily for Orlando. They have similar supply/demand characteristics.

Look at the availibility tables in the European version of the RCI directory (page 25) if you think Orlando does not have an excess of supply. They rate Florida as having ''very good availibility'' 3 months out of the year, and ''good availibitlity'' 4 months out of the year. That compares with 4 months in ''good availibility'' and zero in ''very good availibility'' for South Africa. Only two months in Florida are marked ''limited availibility/very highly demanded'' compared to FIVE such months in South Africa. According to RCI's own tables, Florida does sound rather seasonal in timeshare demand, even if not so in weather.

There are lots of blue weeks that fall into either the ''limited availibility / very highly demanded'' or ''less availibility / highly demanded'' categories on that table. When they trade to Florida seven months out of the year, it is clearly a trade down (certainly the more limited availibility areas like Sanibel/Captiva and Key West would be an exception).

How many members in DAE? How many in RCI? II? That is what I mean. The scale is too small to test the theory even if they are the biggest in one area.

There has been a fairly consistant use of the fact that 80% of the deposits are chasing the top 20%. While not all 80% would be considered dogs plenty are not the best or they wouldn't be in that group. And the majority are in the highly seasonal areas rather than what you like consider as "overbuilt". At least in those areas the majority of the weeks would be in the top 40% while the seasonal areas have 50% or more in the dregs categories. It is a trade up for them if they even climb into the 70% mark for an exchange. And if they can't they are the first candidates to bail unless they bought to use rather than trade. And if they aren't trading they don't belong in this thread anyway!

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

The area where DAE has the biggest market presence just happens to be where they were first established. They have not had the time to build up their volume yet, but give them time and watch out RCI!

[BocaBum99 Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close BocaBum99]

The area where DAE has the biggest market presence just happens to be where they were first established. They have not had the time to build up their volume yet, but give them time and watch out RCI!

Hell has a better chance of freezing over than DAE has in surpassing RCI exchange volume.

[DDI Par Member Find all posts View Profile Close DDI Par]

No problems at this point

Although the introduction of the RCI points program has really not seemed to influence our weeks trading capabilities, it is annoying to think that RCI takes weeks programs and gives them to points, while their claim to compensate weeks deposits by putting points deposits back into weeks availability feels a little bit like "buyer beware". What RCI claims and what they actually do sometimes feels like we are in a giant shell game.

Be that as it may, we have continued to receive weeks trades that have lived up to our expectations. They have not been off-season. They have not been "lesser" resorts. They have not been in marginal locations. They have not been downgraded in unit size, but quite the opposite.

If RCI is taking our deposits and immediately placing them into a rental category, as opposed to placing them into the exchange pool, then we have a problem with RCI's ethics, regardless of the fact that they altered their terms and conditions for deposits a couple of years ago.

We are currently scrutinizing RCI's exchange availability closely, but so far, so (pretty) good. If this deteriorates, (as it might have subtley done recently), we will castigate RCI as it will then richly deserve. For now, we keep our fingers crossed that our highly rated resorts and our very good trading power will continue to serve us well.

DDI Par
Phoenix, AZ

[BocaBum99 Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close BocaBum99]

The key in a market-based exchange system is supply vs demand.

You keep saying this, but you obviously have no idea what it means.

Did you know that EVERY market for EVERY product in the world INDEPENDENT of the pricing mechanism is based on SUPPLY and DEMAND?

Every product in the World, even if it is in CUBA, has an inherent Supply and Demand curve based on the market participants. That is true whether the products are based on US Dollars, Russian Rubles, or Disney Bucks. It is also true if the pricing mechanism is fixed, variable, government dictated or random.

The key question is whether or not the market is efficient and effective at matching supply and demand. An efficient market is defined as a trading system that CLEARS the market effectively where Supply = Demand or close to it.

Every Supply and Demand curve has a crossover point. That crossover point is where supply = demand and the market clears. The variable on the supply/demand curve that regulates supply and demand is the PRICE.

If the price for a product is TOO HIGH, then supply will remain higher than supply and the market won't clear. There will be excess inventory. If the price for a product is TOO LOw, then demand will exceed supply and you get a STOCK out condition.

In a weeks based system, there is NO PRICE. So, therefore, it cannot be a true market-based system. A Market-based system gives EVERY market participant equal access to available inventory and inventory is assigned to those who are willing to pay the highest price. A weeks based system has an ARBITRARY mechanism for EXCLUDING people from accessing inventory. Discrimination is rampant. Heck, I think I read somewhere that that exclusionary list is based on race in some countries in the RCI system. So, a better label for weeks based exchange is that it is based on DISCRIMINATION.

Using your definition of an exchange being market based rather than the REAL definition of an efficient market would imply that the following exchange scheme would be "market based" after all, it is based on supply and demand:

There is a new exchange system called "The Fair Market Based Weeks Exchange System." Here is how it works. Timeshare owners deposit weeks into the exchange and place requests for units they want. If there is more demand for the available supply of a week, a roulette wheel is spun to assign a trading power value to the owners week. Weeks are then assigned to those with the highest number. Everyone else cannot have access to those weeks even if they are willing to pay extra to get it.

[BocaBum99 Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close BocaBum99]

I am going to anticipate your response. You are now going to claim that trading power is the price in a weeks based system.

Equating trading power to price is like saying a donut is a tire because they are roughly the same shape. A playing card is a brick because they are both rectangular. The stove is the sun because they are both hot. Capitalism is the same as communism because they both start with a "c". Black is the same as white because they are both colors.

Next, you will say something related to the OBX, the Crossover Grid, Communism, New Coke or Enron.

Edited to add: Command and Control economy and Rent Control.

[ebram Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close ebram]

Request first=efficiency

Perhaps II's rquest first system is the fairest system of all. If you don't fid what you want you don't make the deal(trade).

[Jya-Ning Silver Contributor Find all posts View Profile Close Jya-Ning]

Perhaps II's rquest first system is the fairest system of all. If you don't fid what you want you don't make the deal(trade).

If everyone just check, where will the inventory come?

Jya-Ning

[Jya-Ning Silver Contributor Find all posts View Profile Close Jya-Ning]

Boca:

Why do I feel you are the Sam in the Green Egg and Ham?

Jya-Ning

[Jya-Ning Silver Contributor Find all posts View Profile Close Jya-Ning]

I do some long weekends, including sometimes 5 day weekends to Europe, and would not thing of using timeshare on that type of trip. Hotel rooms are so much easier for short trips. The points people also have to pay extra fees for this type of use that makes it less appealing.

Why use hotel? What happen to TS? What is the shortcoming here? What change will it necessary to make you use TS in short trip instead of hotel?

In order for TS to grow, they have to try to get people commit all their travel lodge money, they have to compete with hotel. Point is just a tool for them to see if they can do that. You can use it as week system anyway.

Even with all RCI resorts number (over 3,000), it still less then most of the hotel chain, the supply is an issue. But in order to provide supply, they have to be able to get people to commit the money (but more TS)

Jya-Ning

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

In Weeks, the ''price'' is the Trading Power value. Haven't you figured that out yet? The only difference is that it is not rigged and frozen like its counterpart at Points. And of course, as a consequence of its flexibility, not visible.

In your theory, a command economy suddenly becomes a market economy. Tell that to those who lived in the old Soviet bloc!

Rigged and frozen prices that cannot respond to changes in supply and demand cannot create a market based system.

I guess next you will be telling us that rent control is also an example of a market based system!

You keep saying this, but you obviously have no idea what it means.

Did you know that EVERY market for EVERY product in the world INDEPENDENT of the pricing mechanism is based on SUPPLY and DEMAND?

Every product in the World, even if it is in CUBA, has an inherent Supply and Demand curve based on the market participants. That is true whether the products are based on US Dollars, Russian Rubles, or Disney Bucks. It is also true if the pricing mechanism is fixed, variable, government dictated or random.

The key question is whether or not the market is efficient and effective at matching supply and demand. An efficient market is defined as a trading system that CLEARS the market effectively where Supply = Demand or close to it.

Every Supply and Demand curve has a crossover point. That crossover point is where supply = demand and the market clears. The variable on the supply/demand curve that regulates supply and demand is the PRICE.

If the price for a product is TOO HIGH, then supply will remain higher than supply and the market won't clear. There will be excess inventory. If the price for a product is TOO LOw, then demand will exceed supply and you get a STOCK out condition.

In a weeks based system, there is NO PRICE. So, therefore, it cannot be a true market-based system. A Market-based system gives EVERY market participant equal access to available inventory and inventory is assigned to those who are willing to pay the highest price. A weeks based system has an ARBITRARY mechanism for EXCLUDING people from accessing inventory. Discrimination is rampant. Heck, I think I read somewhere that that exclusionary list is based on race in some countries in the RCI system. So, a better label for weeks based exchange is that it is based on DISCRIMINATION.

Using your definition of an exchange being market based rather than the REAL definition of an efficient market would imply that the following exchange scheme would be "market based" after all, it is based on supply and demand:

There is a new exchange system called "The Fair Market Based Weeks Exchange System." Here is how it works. Timeshare owners deposit weeks into the exchange and place requests for units they want. If there is more demand for the available supply of a week, a roulette wheel is spun to assign a trading power value to the owners week. Weeks are then assigned to those with the highest number. Everyone else cannot have access to those weeks even if they are willing to pay extra to get it.

[Jya-Ning Silver Contributor Find all posts View Profile Close Jya-Ning]

Rigged and frozen prices that cannot respond to changes in supply and demand cannot create a market based system.

Did RCI just update their point Grid for different area? It is a slow change process.

Jya-Ning