Mickey Math

[pnappleprincess Member Find all posts View Profile Close pnappleprincess]

Hi DVCers!

I am an avid "pixie dust in the eye" person, so I am looking for a course in Mickey Math. I spend a lot of time over on Mouseowners and other Disney Boards because my family visits Disney / Orlando often. With the speculation of price for the new VGF, I have seen a few owners post saying that their direct purchase actually came out better than resale. Since I also spend time here and on another timeshare forum, that seems to directly conflict. HOWEVER, I know I have seen several names here on both timeshare boards as well as the Disney ones, so I figured I would post here to get the answer.

Thanks in advance!

[GrayFal Silver Contributor and supermoderator Find all posts View Profile Close GrayFal]

Hi DVCers!

I am an avid "pixie dust in the eye" person, so I am looking for a course in Mickey Math. I spend a lot of time over on Mouseowners and other Disney Boards because my family visits Disney / Orlando often. With the speculation of price for the new VGF, I have seen a few owners post saying that their direct purchase actually came out better than resale. Since I also spend time here and on another timeshare forum, that seems to directly conflict. HOWEVER, I know I have seen several names here on both timeshare boards as well as the Disney ones, so I figured I would post here to get the answer.

Thanks in advance!

That is interesting - as I recall the 'going rate' for resale was approx. 65% of retail.
I know that resales can now only be used for DVC resorts - but that is probably why u r buying, right?

What do you think??? Why would paying more be better?

[bnoble Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close bnoble]

I have seen a few owners post saying that their direct purchase actually came out better than resale.

Only in the very (very!) beginning of a particular resort. During that very short window (measured in months) there are so few resale contracts available that the price spread just isn't sufficient to make up for the hassle---worse, many of those early resales are stripped, and stripped contracts are over-valued in the secondary market.

That does not last long at all, and within a very few years, there are sufficient owners looking to unload things they bought in the heat of the moment but don't really want/use. True, in the meantime, it will be hard to get seven-month reservations because so few units are declared into the condominium and it's the shiny new thing. So, if you absolutely must stay there in the first year it is open, and can afford the direct purchase price, feel free. But, with just a teeny amount of patience, and a long term view, you'll be much better off financially.

Go back and track some of the BLT discussions to see what I mean. But, that resort started in active sales in Fall 2008. It opened for occupancy in late summer 2009. It is only three years later, and already the resale deeds are passing ROFR between low 80s and mid 90s. Inflation-adjusted, that's $75-$90 in 2008 dollars. The initial price in 2008 was about $110 with incentives. Over time, the resale/initial price spread will only get wider.

And, of course, if you don't need to own at the very newest, shiniest resort, the argument for resale is even stronger---to the point of being simply undeniable.

So short answer: anyone who says it was cheaper to buy direct than resale is looking only at the very first year or so of sales at a particular resort. If you must stay at VGF the year it opens, and you have money to burn, buy from Disney. If you can be flexible about where you stay, and can wait a while before you stay at VGF (vs BLT, or VWL, or BWV, or OKW, or SSR, or...) then buy resale---and buy at any of the DVC resorts at which you'd be happy staying. The one thing I would strongly advocate is: don't buy where you would not be happy to stay. In particular, if I was hoping to stay at WDW, I would never own at a non-WDW resort. Likewise, if you can't imagine yourself being happy at SSR, don't own there.

[tonyg Goomba & Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close tonyg]

Resale will vary with whatever base price Disney wishes to set, so they control resale pricing on the bottom end. You really need to know where Disney sets the ROFR to make a calculation of what is the best way to go. Here's one former thread on the subject:
http://www.timeshareforums.com/forum...=disney+resale
I was looking for another thread where resale ROFR prices were quoted by someone---perhaps by rikkis_playpen, but I cannot find it.

[bnoble Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close bnoble]

It's worth pointing out that you can also exchange in. That is potentially much less expensive, but requires significant flexibility *and* a willingness to stay offsite if things don't work out. For some people (like me) that's a fine tradeoff. For others, not so much.

Resale will vary with whatever base price Disney wishes to set, so they control resale pricing on the bottom end. You really need to know where Disney sets the ROFR to make a calculation of what is the best way to go. Here's one former thread on the subject:

Disney has not been actively ROFRing in large numbers for a few years now. A few OKW deeds each month (to extend 2042 deeds to 2054) and a handful of others here and there. But, nothing like the old days. I don't expect that to change; the system is just too large for even Disney's deep pockets to contain prices and try to re-sell those points at "old" resorts.

[tonyg Goomba & Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close tonyg]

Could it be a result of the economy ?

[Presley Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Presley]

There have been times when buying direct was a better choice. It hasn't been like that for over a year, at least.
When I bought VGC, it was $97./pp direct and came with an extra years worth of points. Resales were listed around $95./pp. I bought direct. Now, if you buy it direct it is $130./pp and about $100./pp on resale. The market is always changing.

[bnoble Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close bnoble]

Could it be a result of the economy ?

Only Mickey knows for sure, but they've not had any trouble selling points based on the reported statistics.
http://www.dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc...or-august-2012
(I think you can get to past months from there.)

When I bought VGC, it was $97./pp direct and came with an extra years worth of points.

The initial offering price was $112 (before a $5 incentive), so I'm guessing this was during one of those "new resort/early window" situations that I wrote about above.

[pnappleprincess Member Find all posts View Profile Close pnappleprincess]

Thanks for all of the replies!!!!

So high level (and with a caveat that the market is always changing) - if you are willing to wait - you can still get the best deal resale. But, if you are just iching to stay AT THAT RESORT when it first opens - get it within the first couple of months.

Since we are flexible and the resorts we were looking at are BLT or BCV - it sounds like we can still get a better deal resale. I am also researching the probability and savings of exchanging to DVC with Bonnet Creek or Reunion Resorts as a backup. Although, since we have been able to stay on property for prices close to MF's - I am not sure the motivation is there to even pick up DVC. Still doing the Math though....

Oh yea - and the whole - you can only use your points to stay onsite or exchange via RCI is not a factor for me at all. Using them for anything else does not give you the best ROI.

Off to study more links.....

[chriskre Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close chriskre]

There are situations that buying direct makes sense.
When I purchased, I purchased direct even knowing about the resale market.
The reason that I did was because at the time Disney did not charge closing costs, the payments did not show up on your credit report because it was considered "owner financing" and they were giving "incentives" to buy direct. I got a $1500 incentive (discount) so in essence it was actually cheaper for me to buy direct from them. I own at SSR and of course since I purchased in 2004 the prices have plummeted at that resort. At the time with the incentives it came out to $90 a point. Today you can buy for $45 a point so I wouldn't do it today. I did get my money's worth out of it over the years because I got started in DVC earlier than the plunge in the market and at the time it was good value. No sense crying over what could have been had I waited. I'm older now and enjoyed it when I was much more active and could really enjoy it to the max. That had value to me. It's not all about the money. I try to see it that way and keep things in perspective.

If I were to do it over again, I'd probably still purchase direct but break up that purchase into smaller contracts and use them and strip them and resell a few of them. That is a case where buying a small contract direct also makes sense since the small contracts go so high on the resale market. Once you are an owner you can purchase contracts as small as 25 points. It used to be with free closing costs but I think that's gone these days. A small add on can make sense if you just want an every other year fix at a high cost resort and are happy staying in studios in off season. Studios are great for point stretchers like me who want a few Disney fixes year round off season and don't need the full week exchanges. There was a time when I could stay at AKV and OKW 18 nights a year for just my MF's. I maxxed that for years. It was just me and the BF so all we needed was a studio. Now I travel with more friends so that plan doesn't work as well as it used to but now I can rent my unneeded points and keep about 50 to myself for those last minute fixes solo or for a conference and subsidize with renting. I did that this year and still have 78 points left over for myself. Going with friends works out better at Bonnet Creek in those Presidential units.

Disney did take away a few resale rights like using points for other purposes like cruises and RCI exchanges. I have yet to use my points on a cruise but would consider it. It's not great value but for me the initial purchase is sunk money so I only base my use of my points on my MF's unless of course I am renting to others. Then I try to recoup some of my initial investment. I try not to obsess about the money I spent cause then it takes the fun out of owning DVC.

[bnoble Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close bnoble]

I purchased in 2004

This is another instance of "first-year/new-resort" SSR opened its first phase for occupancy in May of '04.

Disney did take away a few resale rights like using points for other purposes like cruises and RCI exchanges.

Cruises yes. RCI exchanges no.

[mickey moe Junior Member Find all posts View Profile Close mickey moe]

When I purchased BLT in 2009 my net price after incentives was 86 dollars.

It was my second DVC purchase, I knew about the resale market but when I analysed the facts like the low MF's, the probability of BLT keeping it's value similar to BCV in the future made the decision easier.

The funny thing is I have been renting all my DVC points in the last few years, I have been using my Grandview Las Vegas RCI timeshares to trade into DVC for less than 1/3 the cost of using my Disney points. I have scored a 1 bed @OKW, 2 bed @Grand California, Studio @ Beach club in the last 2 yrs and have recently booked a 2 bed at Animal Kingdom for Mar 2013.

[Hobbitess Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Hobbitess]

The funny thing is I have been renting all my DVC points in the last few years, I have been using my Grandview Las Vegas RCI timeshares to trade into DVC for less than 1/3 the cost of using my Disney points. I have scored a 1 bed @OKW, 2 bed @Grand California, Studio @ Beach club in the last 2 yrs and have recently booked a 2 bed at Animal Kingdom for Mar 2013.

Clearly I haven't been paying attention -- last time I looked, there was some debate about whether Grand California was available through RCI. But, yah, even my overpriced points through BG get me DVC units cheaper than owning DVC resale would. As bnoble says, if you're flexible and/or willing to stay somewhere else if it comes to it, and especially if you can go offseason, trading into DVC is likely the cheapest way to go.

(My BG points are "overpriced" in that I have a small ownership so pay more per point in MFs. I got them resale for five bucks and transfer costs, so definitely not overpriced in that sense!)

[chriskre Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close chriskre]

Clearly I haven't been paying attention -- last time I looked, there was some debate about whether Grand California was available through RCI. But, yah, even my overpriced points through BG get me DVC units cheaper than owning DVC resale would. As bnoble says, if you're flexible and/or willing to stay somewhere else if it comes to it, and especially if you can go offseason, trading into DVC is likely the cheapest way to go.

(My BG points are "overpriced" in that I have a small ownership so pay more per point in MFs. I got them resale for five bucks and transfer costs, so definitely not overpriced in that sense!)

Any of the portal minis are cheaper than using your DVC points but that doesn't stop the DVC junkies from needing to own their Disney vacations and there is definitely something to be said for the flexibility of what DVC offers. I own several ways into DVC and for the most part have used my DVC points instead because I don't need a full week and I'd rather use my minis in the minis.

I do have to admit that I did get jealous of all these cheap DVC trades and finally took the plunge with my CMV UDI which I am amassing TPU's for using in DVC. So I may feel differently next year when I can stay in my favorite resort for 1/3 of what it would have cost me buying more DVC points. Who knows, maybe in the future, I'll just rent out my points to pay for those 3 weeks I can get with my CMV cottage and be like the rest of you guys.

My only DVC exchange this year was to Vero in a 2 bedroom. Would have cost me more than 250 DVC points at a value of about $2500 if you value your points at $10 which is what most are going for at the moment, although it is going up. In pure MF's that stay would have cost me 1-3/4 years worth of points so $1250 at least in just MF's. With the exchange the cost was only $450 plus the average of my RCI membership. How's that for Mickey Math. Hard to justify using points at Vero when it's practically a giveaway in RCI. I'm hoping that Alaunai will be the same since it seems the off site resorts don't have the appeal that the Orlando ones do.

[chriskre Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close chriskre]

This is another instance of "first-year/new-resort" SSR opened its first phase for occupancy in May of '04.


Cruises yes. RCI exchanges no.

True. At the time I didn't know that you could buy at another resort since the sales person only toured SSR and was definitely selling SSR.
I should have immersed myself in Mouseowners before purchasing, not afterwards but such is life. I still get a ton of use and value out of what I own and that's exactly the reason why I purchased. There is definitely something to be said for ease of use. Now with online booking DVC has been taken to a whole new level. Just wish you could search all resorts and sizes like the Wyndham portal but I know that's too complicated for Disney's IT dept. Oh well, at least we got something. Something is better than nothing like before.

And thanks for the correction on the RCI trades. I truly don't pay attention to the benefits taken away since it doesn't apply to me. Even if I purchased resale it would have been for exclusive use at Disney anyway. It's just nice to know that maybe one year I can do the cruise and now that Mickey will park a boat in my backyard this is more appealing than ever.