Disney timeshare only lasts 60 years?

[Steamboat Bill Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Steamboat Bill]

I meant planning to buying and selling with making a profit as a goal. DVC has and does very well with retaining thier value.

ok...on that we will both agree...DVC is NOT cheap and the past performance of positive resales for owners whom purchased between 1999-2006 does not guarantee that new owners 2007-2015 will not be as lucky....but if I had to hedge a bet...DVC is probably the closest think to a sure thing as there is in the "buy a timeshare from a developer world"

[wackymother Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close wackymother]

These RTU concerns crack me up....show me "One" person that has owned any other single timeshare in the world for 50 years....I'm waiting........thus, the expiration date is an almost moot point.

Wait a minute. Shawnee Village in the Poconos is RCI resort number 0001. It was the original timeshare. I don't know when they started selling, probably about 30 or 40 years ago.

Having stayed at Shawnee in the off-season and chatted with some of the people there, I feel confident that there are MANY original owners still kicking around the place. They sold to a lot of the locals and there are parties and events on Fridays and Saturdays that are attended by many people who own and live in the area.

So if you look at timeshare that way--as an opportunity to buy into a nearby social club--then there are lots of people who will be using their timeshare memberships for decades and decades to come.

[Steamboat Bill Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Steamboat Bill]

I was not even alive 50 years ago....and probably won't make it another 50 years....thus, for me it is irrevelant....50 years suites me fine.

[PeterS Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close PeterS]

A 50 year old resort can't have much appeal. I assume it will be town down and something else built in its place.

You better inform Disney...
The Poly and Contemp are over 35 years old and they still are considered premium resorts.

These RTU concerns crack me up....show me "One" person that has owned any other single timeshare in the world for 50 years....I'm waiting........thus, the expiration date is an almost moot point. Besides, don't you tjhink the 50 year old timeshares (including Marritoo, Hilton, WM) will either wach owners with an assessment or simply start increasing their MF to increase their reserve and remodeling fund.

Yes, in the future, the original OKW will start declining in value, while the newer resorts like SSR should retain thier value for a long time.

Since 1991, when OKW was first built, there has never been a decrease in value of a DVC contract. Any person that boought from the developer (Disney) before 2004 can easily resell their contract for a profit. Nobody that has bought DVC and held for a few years has ever lost money....that fact alone is unmatched in the timeshare industry.

This far from a moot point... I really liked everything about DVC and was all set to buy but this was the single most important reason (to me) to not buy.

Yes the people that are early in and early out seem to be doing fine but at some point the tide must turn as in 50 years.. the value is $0. Like a pyramid/ponzi scheme, the last owners are left holding the bag.

As far as someone owning a timeshare for 50 years... that is not the point, the point is if the ownership disappears in 50 years, there is nothing to sell at that point. Fine if you got in at day one... but if you got in at year 40.. then your time is only 10 years... My first home was 94 years old when I bought it and over 100 when I sold it.... There are historic timeshares... Marriott in Boston, Manhattan club in NYC... all over 50 years old before being remodelled into timeshares....

So if 50 years are fine for you.. then you would buy a TS with 50 year life.. fine... would you buy one with only 10 years left? or 5? Time makes the unit less saleable and the result is the price must drop...

Check out the latest Timesharing Today with an article called "Avoiding the Sharks" by Byron Wiegand, President of the Timeshare Resale Alliance. The article is about reselling but in point number one he says..."If it is a points or right to use share with little time left on it, the value will be low or non-existant and that is not likely to change"

If you understand this and still want to by DVC than all the power to you... but denial doesn't make it less true...

Go in with both eyes wide open... less surprises that way...

Pete

[TomandRobin Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close TomandRobin]

We are aware of the "associated risks" of DVC, but we bought DVC for Disney. We don't intend on trading out with our DVC ownership. Last year we went six times, this coming year we are going 3 or 4 times (need to firm up that last trip). If in 20 years we decide to sell and only get 50 cent on the dollar of what we paid, it'll be worth it for us.

Now if I bought DVC and used it for trades, then shame on me! It would be like throwing money into the wind and watching it blow away.

The bottom line.....DVC is for Disney....Period. If you go every year, it has a definate value that can not be denied.

[Steamboat Bill Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Steamboat Bill]

Peter

With SSR currently selling DVC with a new 50 year RTU as compared to OKW now with only 34 years left....I still don't see why this would be your #1 reason NOT to buy DVC.

This is why I jumped ship from VWL to SSR a few years ago....I was able to sell my two 250 point VWL contracts for a $3k profit on each contract. I then bought two 250 point SSR contracts (from DVC when pre-construciton prices were announced) and then just bought another 150 point contract a few weeks ago (see my post on theat deal).

When DVC announces a new RTU property (such as Contemporary resort or Animal Kingdon) with a NEW RTU schedule, I will sell SSR and buy the new product.

In other words, I am playing musical chairs (sorta) and flip the old RTU (for a profit of course) and buy the newest product.

With my plan...the RTU expiration date is MOOT. Comparing DVC to a Ponzi scam is rediculous as this is NOT a pyramid scam.

Besides, when you go on DVC tours, they calculate the price per point as: MF + (approx $2 depreciation of resort) = cost. DVC figures that the value of the timeshare should be REDUCED by about $2 per point each year until the 50 year cycle is up and then it is worth $0. DVC is very straightforward in disclosing this.

However, in reality, the resale prices have NOT gone down, in fact, the resale price goes up each year since 1991 and anyone selling made a nice profit. There is a time (100% probability) when the resale prices for OWK will begin to drop, but it has not happened yet. If you buy SSR, you are assuring yourself a longer time period until the price begins to drop for resale (at least 16 years if you compare to OKW).

I consider myself to be an expert DVC user, an above average timeshare user, and an above average destination club owner, and average condo/hotel owner. I most certainly am NOT in denial about the RTU of DVC.

I can only make this statement (I am not a Disney employee):
DVC has 100,000 members that mainly bought "from the Developer"
Prices have not gone down since 1991
Nobody has lost money on resale if they sold after 3 years of ownership
OKW will be the first to start to drop in value
SSR is a great deal at the present time

No other timeshare company (besides DVC) can make these claims as the entire foundation for TUG was the fact that consumers got tired of being ripped off from timeshare developers and wathcing their TS purchase from a devloper drop 50% or more in value the second the ink dries on the contract.

This far from a moot point... I really liked everything about DVC and was all set to buy but this was the single most important reason (to me) to not buy.

If you understand this and still want to by DVC than all the power to you... but denial doesn't make it less true...

[misternick Junior Member Find all posts View Profile Close misternick]

Was Just Curious

My questions about what happens when the time runs out were from a more curiosity perspective than anything else - more speculative. Questions of "value" are in the eye (or wallet) of the beholder, so to speak, and everyone is entitled to determine what "value" means to them. I moved to South Florida when I was 7 and was fortuneate enough to be in DisneyWorld shortly after they opened. I even had GradNite there. Before I left NYC to live in S.FLA, I watched the Wounderful World of Disney on a 9 inch B&W TV. I have many fond memories of Disney. But Disney is a business, and their business is Entertainment and making money - which they are both very good at doing.

So what would Disney do when these resort's time begin to, and finally do, expire? Tear them down is one option, but I suspect not as Disney will need to maintain these properties, to the Disney standard at that time, until the very end. There is plenty of land left untouched that Disney can develop to expand into new parks and adventures (and hotels and timeshares) for the future. People will always need a place to stay. And who knows - perhaps the resorts of today become the 'Fort Wilderness' of tomorrow ("Live like they did back at the turn of the (other) Century!")

I suspect that these resorts will be remodled and either return back to hotels, or be offered up again for another 50 years - and why not, timesharing will offset the remodeling costs and re-align the prices to then present day dollars. But that is just my opinion. I was curious to hear any of your thoughts based on this groups vast knowledge of both Disney and the timeshare industry.

From my perspective, I like the fact that I purchased something that has longevity that I can will to my children and them to theirs, etc.... I like knowing that I paved the path by putting the money up front to provide them with top notch vacation options at a fraction of the cost to them that they would otherwise pay greatly for equal quality. Dollars to point (and value) discussion aside, I would have glady paid for Disney properties if I could have passed those deeds on for as long as Disney existed - which BTW, I believe will greatly exceed 50 years (barring any global disasters, that is). Disney has it's reasons for coming up with their 50 year plan - perhaps it's exclusivity, or some ROI model. Whatever the reason, to me the message is that you don't get to really 'own' the Magic forever, but you can get a good taste of it.

Nick

[PeterS Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close PeterS]

We are aware of the "associated risks" of DVC, but we bought DVC for Disney. We don't intend on trading out with our DVC ownership. Last year we went six times, this coming year we are going 3 or 4 times (need to firm up that last trip). If in 20 years we decide to sell and only get 50 cent on the dollar of what we paid, it'll be worth it for us.

Now if I bought DVC and used it for trades, then shame on me! It would be like throwing money into the wind and watching it blow away.

The bottom line.....DVC is for Disney....Period. If you go every year, it has a definate value that can not be denied.

If you understand this and accept it than it is perfect for you... you bought in fully understanding what you were buying and felt the price was fair so it works for you....

Peter

With SSR currently selling DVC with a new 50 year RTU as compared to OKW now with only 34 years left....I still don't see why this would be your #1 reason NOT to buy DVC.

This is why I jumped ship from VWL to SSR a few years ago....I was able to sell my two 250 point VWL contracts for a $3k profit on each contract. I then bought two 250 point SSR contracts (from DVC when pre-construciton prices were announced) and then just bought another 150 point contract a few weeks ago (see my post on theat deal).

When DVC announces a new RTU property (such as Contemporary resort or Animal Kingdon) with a NEW RTU schedule, I will sell SSR and buy the new product.

In other words, I am playing musical chairs (sorta) and flip the old RTU (for a profit of course) and buy the newest product.

With my plan...the RTU expiration date is MOOT. Comparing DVC to a Ponzi scam is rediculous as this is NOT a pyramid scam.

Besides, when you go on DVC tours, they calculate the price per point as: MF + (approx $2 depreciation of resort) = cost. DVC figures that the value of the timeshare should be REDUCED by about $2 per point each year until the 50 year cycle is up and then it is worth $0. DVC is very straightforward in disclosing this.

However, in reality, the resale prices have NOT gone down, in fact, the resale price goes up each year since 1991 and anyone selling made a nice profit. There is a time (100% probability) when the resale prices for OWK will begin to drop, but it has not happened yet. If you buy SSR, you are assuring yourself a longer time period until the price begins to drop for resale (at least 16 years if you compare to OKW).

I consider myself to be an expert DVC user, an above average timeshare user, and an above average destination club owner, and average condo/hotel owner. I most certainly am NOT in denial about the RTU of DVC.

I can only make this statement (I am not a Disney employee):
DVC has 100,000 members that mainly bought "from the Developer"
Prices have not gone down since 1991
Nobody has lost money on resale if they sold after 3 years of ownership
OKW will be the first to start to drop in value
SSR is a great deal at the present time

No other timeshare company (besides DVC) can make these claims as the entire foundation for TUG was the fact that consumers got tired of being ripped off from timeshare developers and wathcing their TS purchase from a devloper drop 50% or more in value the second the ink dries on the contract.

I am not questioning your expertise or that if you stay active and keep flipping the resorts, you may stay ahead of the curve... and to you and your plan, the RTU issue may be moot.. but to the average buy/use/hold buyer, it is not the case.

If someone promotes DVC as always going up then they make it very similiar to a Ponzi scheme as the first ones in promise profits to everyone and for a while everyone makes money but as the scheme draws down, the people at the end get stuck with something with no value.

If it is clear that at the end of the RTU, every unit will be worth $0, so every owner of that resort at that time, no matter what they paid, will loose everything...

You are very knowledgable of DVC and your plan protects you but for the average owners who doesn't want to flip a unit every three years or so, they just need to understand that somewhere down the road, the unit will start depreciating until it worth $0. If they understand that (like Tomandrobin) and they feel they get their value out of the usage, they are perfect for DVC.

My main concern is if a newbie skims these posts, it sounds like buying DVC is a great financial investment and everyone makes money, in fact it keeps going up, so the longer you hold it the more it it is worth, and everyone comes out with more money than bought in with...

Pete

[Steamboat Bill Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Steamboat Bill]

Nick:

I too grew up in South Florida and went to Disney World Grad Nite 1980 when KC and the Sunshine band played there. My wife was also there, but I did not know her then,

I am not privy to inside DVC info, but I would speculate that at the end of 50 years, the timeshares will need major remodeling and possible teardown.

My guess it that DVC will remodel or replace the current location and start the 50 year clock again. This should not come as any surprise or shock to anyone. As I said, DVC is very open about explaining the expiration and even factors this loss into the equation on how they value the cost per point during sales presentations.

I just don't agree that this should be such a critical factor. I, for one, actually like this timeshare model as it quantifies our loss for us. If anyone thinks that their "full ownership" will not require major assessments or major reserve fund increases as these properties start to approach 50 years old is kidding themselves. If they don't do it, the properties will begin to look like slum crack houses and the value of the timeshare resale will drop to $0

Here is how the conversation will go…..gee thanks mom and dad for giving me a crappy timeshare that I actually have to pay MF each year…

If you follow my threads on here and TUG, I make a compelling argument for buying DVC as the net cost to you will be $0 (in about 12 years after purchase) if you rent the points or use the savings from taking vacations there (as compared to paying Disney for them). Thus, according to my math, in 12 years, the true net cost to me for this timeshare is $0 and I have another 38 years to rent the points (making an additional $228 per point profit) when the original cost was only about $76 per point when I purchased. Again, I have to ask….is there any other timeshare that can be bought from the developer that can achieve these numbers?

I NEVER recommend buying DVC for the only intention of renting points or trying to make a profit…but thanks to the 50 year RTU…DVC represents great value in my mind (that is if you like going to Disney).


PeterS:

As I stated above, the true net cost "to me" of a DVC purchased from "the developer" will be $0 in about 12 years. In other words…..it will be free. Thus, for the next 38 years, I can rent it for $ or use it for vacations.

These numbers and calculations are for "the average buy/use/hold buyer" and I personally feel that the "RTU issue becomes moot" at that time.

As a side note, I would like to speculate on the data for parents who deed or gift their timeshare to their kids: how many people actually do it, do the kids appreciate this gift, what is the average value of the gift, what is the average MF of this gift, what is the condition of the timeshare.

My guess is the MOST timeshare gifts are NOT appreciated or even wanted by the kids.

I would rather buy a larger life insurance policy and leave them more cash to buy whatever they want.

[TomandRobin Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close TomandRobin]

This is why I jumped ship from VWL to SSR a few years ago....I was able to sell my two 250 point VWL contracts for a $3k profit on each contract. I then bought two 250 point SSR contracts (from DVC when pre-construciton prices were announced) and then just bought another 150 point contract a few weeks ago (see my post on theat deal).

What was the deal you got for SSR?

[Steamboat Bill Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Steamboat Bill]

What was the deal you got for SSR?

Using my "creative math" I paid an "adjusted" cost of around $70 per point and bought directly from Disney.

Here is a link on OY how I did it.

http://tugbbs.com/forums/showthread....isney+vacation

[Steamboat Bill Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Steamboat Bill]

In March 2007 the DVC rates go up to $104 per point at Saratoga Springs.

AKL will probably be $107-$110 per point, when they do start selling.

It looks like my predications are coming true....

[misternick Junior Member Find all posts View Profile Close misternick]

It's A Small World After All

Nick:

I too grew up in South Florida and went to Disney World Grad Nite 1980 when KC and the Sunshine band played there. My wife was also there, but I did not know her then,

Bill, My GradNite was '79 - I think KC was there as well - ah, the Disco days... I went to Hallandale High - which High School did you attend? Perhaps a PM is in order.

Nick

[Steamboat Bill Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Steamboat Bill]

Bill, My GradNite was '79 - I think KC was there as well - ah, the Disco days... I went to Hallandale High - which High School did you attend? Perhaps a PM is in order.

Nick

I sent you a PM...

Nova High School
University of Miami undergrad
Barry University Med School
Surgical residency in LA
currently live in South Florida

[TomandRobin Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close TomandRobin]

Thanks for the link to the other post, Nice read! I wasn't thinking about adding on, but I may have changed my mine now. Before that post I was looking to but a Starwood property or two. I have two long term vacation goals that actually conflict with each other. One is to get to 5 star elite with Starwood. The other is to have 750 or more DVC points. But when I look at all the weeks I would have with Starwood, I could not use them all. With DVC it seems that I never have enough (currently have 330 points). Currently we tend to take two week long trips a year, and four or five half week trips a year. Disney works really well with the small trips. I like the way you can scale up or scale down your trip with Disney. Starwood does offer some flexibility too. This year I used my 2 bedroom l/o and exchanged it for two 1 bedroom premiums and one 1 bedroom at Harborside Atlantis in June.

Decisions, Decisions....Clock is ticking, I have 9 days left. I did call my guide yesterday and the price is going up to $104 in March.