As chronicled elsewhere, my attentions have been on other more important matters the last couple years, so I'm having to play catch-up on this timesharing stuff. I own two developer Marriott intervals at Newport Coast, which is a brutal resort to get reservations at in summer season. I own in both seasons, essentially year-round, except for the two fixed holiday weeks. The resort is built out but far from sold out. Marriott still owns a lot of unsold weeks there. <Edit 07/05> From a reliable source formerly within MVCI direct sales, I read that NCV total unsold inventory is ~5%, with the majority located within Gold season. I was able to substantiate numerous transfers into the trust on the Orange County Recorder's site, but lack information as to the deeded weeks, so no definitive data on seasonal distribution.</edit>
Here's my concerns:
How will the points program impact my direct ownership?
Current discussion indicates 'not at all', but I'm not sure. Since Marriott controls the reservation 'system', only time will tell how they will 'enhance' it to achieve whatever goals their MBA's have set forth for this new points system. As it is, reservations are completely opaque, in that the reservation calendar gives me what's 'available' and that availability is based strictly on what Marriott 'says' it is.
The 'skim' on my summer weeks, IIRC, is 3475 bid versus 4750 ask, so 1274 points skim. I'm entitled to a week in my 'season', which runs essentially from June through December. Will the points system, which allows 'reservations' 13 months out, have Marriott 'taking' summer weeks to promote their 'flexibility of points' and giving an off-season week (in reality, Marriott can 'pick' whatever weeks they want to 'own' at NCV from their unsold inventory) which will become part of my 'calendar'? Remember, my governing documents guarantee me a week in my season and that's all. Marriott can manipulate the numbers any way they choose as long as I get that week in my season.
Let's say I get mad about all of this and say 'f*ck it, sell'. Here's another aspect to talk about, that of the effect of Marriott's cessation of weekly sales and prohibition of/high cost of future resales participating in the 'new', 'improved' points system. Will resale prices further tank? Right now, resales at my resort are running between 28% and 36% of what I paid developer seven years ago. The 'new' points values, at current estimates, place 'developer' points 'sales' at NCV at $24,840 for Gold and, yikes, $40,250 for Platinum. As the resale market slumps, and a disgruntled owner like myself, or any other owner, sells into it, will Marriott pick up those deeds with ROFR for pennies and convert them into the points trust? Discuss the pros and cons of that strategy.
To boil it down, my concern is, due to Marriott having complete control over an opaque reservation system, will this 'enhancement' further degrade an already marginal reservation dynamic at my home resort, impacting my real 'usage' of the resort? In a more cynical and/or sinister scenario, did an MBA actually cook up this scheme to assist in the conversion of the current Marriott weeks system to some new system, as yet unimplemented, on the backs of current owners? Will Marriott not only profit from the new system, but from owner dissatisfaction? Interesting
I just find too many inefficiences and inequities in this 'enhancement' to be pure coincidental.
What are your concerns?
As I don't have time for global investigation, my focus will be myopic, on my home resort, as a canary in the coal mine. I'll be watching resale listings and prices, reservation patterns, Marriott 'rental' prices (on their hotel system), exchange availability into the resort, ROFR activity, and rental prices as clues to demand, owner satisfaction and where this is headed, based on seven years of past information.
Right now, resale prices have stabilized, but listings have dried up, both on eBay and Redweek, versus historical listings, no ROFR AFAIK, June 2011 is still fully open for reservations, rental prices have slipped 15-17% from historical numbers, and there is little to no exchange inventory on II for the next year (two weeks, to be exact, as of this post time). There are more Getaway weeks than exchange weeks.
Good luck
Here's my concerns:
How will the points program impact my direct ownership?
Current discussion indicates 'not at all', but I'm not sure. Since Marriott controls the reservation 'system', only time will tell how they will 'enhance' it to achieve whatever goals their MBA's have set forth for this new points system. As it is, reservations are completely opaque, in that the reservation calendar gives me what's 'available' and that availability is based strictly on what Marriott 'says' it is.
The 'skim' on my summer weeks, IIRC, is 3475 bid versus 4750 ask, so 1274 points skim. I'm entitled to a week in my 'season', which runs essentially from June through December. Will the points system, which allows 'reservations' 13 months out, have Marriott 'taking' summer weeks to promote their 'flexibility of points' and giving an off-season week (in reality, Marriott can 'pick' whatever weeks they want to 'own' at NCV from their unsold inventory) which will become part of my 'calendar'? Remember, my governing documents guarantee me a week in my season and that's all. Marriott can manipulate the numbers any way they choose as long as I get that week in my season.
Let's say I get mad about all of this and say 'f*ck it, sell'. Here's another aspect to talk about, that of the effect of Marriott's cessation of weekly sales and prohibition of/high cost of future resales participating in the 'new', 'improved' points system. Will resale prices further tank? Right now, resales at my resort are running between 28% and 36% of what I paid developer seven years ago. The 'new' points values, at current estimates, place 'developer' points 'sales' at NCV at $24,840 for Gold and, yikes, $40,250 for Platinum. As the resale market slumps, and a disgruntled owner like myself, or any other owner, sells into it, will Marriott pick up those deeds with ROFR for pennies and convert them into the points trust? Discuss the pros and cons of that strategy.
To boil it down, my concern is, due to Marriott having complete control over an opaque reservation system, will this 'enhancement' further degrade an already marginal reservation dynamic at my home resort, impacting my real 'usage' of the resort? In a more cynical and/or sinister scenario, did an MBA actually cook up this scheme to assist in the conversion of the current Marriott weeks system to some new system, as yet unimplemented, on the backs of current owners? Will Marriott not only profit from the new system, but from owner dissatisfaction? Interesting
I just find too many inefficiences and inequities in this 'enhancement' to be pure coincidental.
What are your concerns?
As I don't have time for global investigation, my focus will be myopic, on my home resort, as a canary in the coal mine. I'll be watching resale listings and prices, reservation patterns, Marriott 'rental' prices (on their hotel system), exchange availability into the resort, ROFR activity, and rental prices as clues to demand, owner satisfaction and where this is headed, based on seven years of past information.
Right now, resale prices have stabilized, but listings have dried up, both on eBay and Redweek, versus historical listings, no ROFR AFAIK, June 2011 is still fully open for reservations, rental prices have slipped 15-17% from historical numbers, and there is little to no exchange inventory on II for the next year (two weeks, to be exact, as of this post time). There are more Getaway weeks than exchange weeks.
Good luck
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