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My Analysis of SW Florida Availability

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  • #16
    The decline I documented over the years of daily searches is one thing, with the possibility, but not likeliehood, that it is totally due to individual decisions.

    What happened 5/30, that depleted 60% of the SW FL inventory in one fell swoop, never to return, is a different matter. The 5/30 depletion was admitted to in court, called a computer glitch, but there has been no explanation as to why levels have stayed depleted, other than:

    Date: 8/25/09 3:12:21 PM Central Daylight Time

    . . . For space to be deposited and be hidden from the subscriber would make no sense at all as that is how we generate our income. "


    and,

    11/9/09 9:41:49 AM Central Standard Time

    . . . a few other members have had this same concern, therefore, thorough research was done within all the departments that determine the supply of inventory. However, we do not find any discrepancies at this time. All of the numbers and space availability is correct as of now.



    I have evidence of some deposits disappearing because of individual choice. We stayed in the same unit at one SW FL resort Week 2 for several years, until the owner sold it. We tried to buy it but apparently missed it by minutes/hours. It has never reappeared, exactly what we figured. We know the owners those weeks and they could care less about RCI.

    We have now reserved the same unit Weeks 1 and/or 2 at another lesser resort four times. When that owner makes a different decision, that will likely not be available.

    This is a different matter than why have all the HGVC's (almost) disappeared? Why are some Charter Clubs available when all the others (almost) are not? What happened to all the Hurricane Season availability? What happened to 60% of the inventory on deposit 5/30/09?

    It is also not the same as the other vacation we have used RCI for for several years, Wyndham Nashville in July. In that case, at first search the same exchange we have previous gotten (5 consecutive years) was available as an exchange to some, but was only offered to us for $1200. Then, last week, while most of the dates were available only as rentals, now for $800, three out of 11 deposits were also offered to us as exchanges. In that example we can demonstrate exactly how rentals have damaged us.
    - - - - -

    Another thought . . . in normal times, renting instead of depositing would make dollars and sense, but the last two years, and the foreseeable future, is not normal times. Vacation travel and rental rates are significantly depressed now. I have that from personal experience and from talking to a Sanibel rental agent concerning January rentals.
    RCI Member Since 24-Aug-1989/150-plus Exchanges***THE TIMESHARE GRIM REAPER~~~Exchanging/Searching/SW Florida/MO/AR/IA/Consumer Advocacy/Estate Planning/Sports/Boating/Fishing/Golf/Lake-living/Retirement****Sometimes ya just gotta be a dick

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    • #17
      Originally posted by SteveChapin View Post
      If you click on a resort, there's a button to download the rate brochure. I attached it.
      Thanks Steve.

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      • #18
        Has anyone else had that happen to them . . . search for an exchange you have had several times and see the only way you can get it now is as a rental, for $1200, when others are still getting it as an exchange?
        RCI Member Since 24-Aug-1989/150-plus Exchanges***THE TIMESHARE GRIM REAPER~~~Exchanging/Searching/SW Florida/MO/AR/IA/Consumer Advocacy/Estate Planning/Sports/Boating/Fishing/Golf/Lake-living/Retirement****Sometimes ya just gotta be a dick

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        • #19
          Yes, I have exchanged into Aruba for the last 15 years. I follow exchanges for the Caribbean mainly the Aruba/Barbados/St Maarten category.

          There has always been pretty good inventory for me until that foolish message -- 'due to online activity....." started showing up.

          I see no last minute weeks like I use to and when a week appears and I detail the exchange, I get the famous message - 'due to online activity'.

          Example, last Saturday afternoon. I displayed the following exchanges.
          Belair/SXM for 2/27, Casa Del Mar/AUA for 3/13, Costa Linda/AUA for 3/5 and 3/12, Divi/AUA for 2/27,Divi/BDS for 3/13, Flamingo/SXM for 3/14 and every single one of them returned the 'due to online activity' message.

          I have spent time with their techs showing them this problem along with other problems in their points system. I have a points account as well as a weeks account.

          I have had it with RCI. After 20 years, maybe it is time to try and dump these timeshares.

          Sheila

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          • #20
            Sheila:

            That is something different than my experience.
            RCI Member Since 24-Aug-1989/150-plus Exchanges***THE TIMESHARE GRIM REAPER~~~Exchanging/Searching/SW Florida/MO/AR/IA/Consumer Advocacy/Estate Planning/Sports/Boating/Fishing/Golf/Lake-living/Retirement****Sometimes ya just gotta be a dick

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            • #21
              I guess what I was trying to say is that I am not getting the exchanges that I use to get - yes, I can go to extra vacations and pay the big bucks or go to Ebay and see the weeks being rented by sellers which I believe are a subset of RCI. I'll stay home before I pay RCI for an 'extra vacation'.

              The frustrating thing for me is that I don't want to be teased by having all these resorts displayed when I check an exchange (resorts that I can exchange into and have in the past) then not be able to complete the transaction online.

              There has been a definite lack of last minute weeks (at least now to May 1)to the Caribbean unless you want to go to the DR/Bahamas or a 2 star resort.

              I keep track of exchange activity for AUA/SXM/BDS and there has been a definite change since the first of the year for me.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by itd1sah View Post
                There has been a definite lack of last minute weeks (at least now to May 1)to the Caribbean unless you want to go to the DR/Bahamas or a 2 star resort.
                That is the opposite of my experience.

                You can see it probably in my SW FL in January thread, this year for the first time since we started going to FL in January in the early 90's, I was not able to get our second week until the 14 day window, just before we left for the first week.

                Previously I had confirmed exchanges well in advance, anywhere from 12 to 18 months.

                We all know that stuff in the 14-day window can come from a variety of sources, but the point is you can't go about making vacation plans hoping to pick up something at the last minute.

                As ridiculous as the comment is, RCI actually said, "We are still providing you the vacations you desire," or something like that. I can get the exact quote if anyone cares.

                Now, at 22 months out for January, 2012, there has been only one choice, and that is at one the worst rated resorts in SW FL. In the past, there have been many (say 8-12 choices) at 22 months out. I have the exact figures on that, too, in my other computer.
                RCI Member Since 24-Aug-1989/150-plus Exchanges***THE TIMESHARE GRIM REAPER~~~Exchanging/Searching/SW Florida/MO/AR/IA/Consumer Advocacy/Estate Planning/Sports/Boating/Fishing/Golf/Lake-living/Retirement****Sometimes ya just gotta be a dick

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                • #23
                  Not being able to get SW FL in January when no one else is either, if that is the case, is one thing, but . . .

                  I would like to hear their explanation as to why they are trying to charge us $1200 for something we have gotten for the last five years as an exchange, when others still have it available to them as an exchange???
                  RCI Member Since 24-Aug-1989/150-plus Exchanges***THE TIMESHARE GRIM REAPER~~~Exchanging/Searching/SW Florida/MO/AR/IA/Consumer Advocacy/Estate Planning/Sports/Boating/Fishing/Golf/Lake-living/Retirement****Sometimes ya just gotta be a dick

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                  • #24
                    You already know the explanation: RCI has decided that your trade bait, once fresh and tasty and desperately wanted by all the fish in the ocean, has spoiled. Not Good Enough. What was once shangri-la is now Mugwump Swamp.

                    Etc. and so forth.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by bnoble
                      You already know the explanation: RCI has decided that your trade bait, once fresh and tasty and desperately wanted by all the fish in the ocean, has spoiled. Not Good Enough. What was once shangri-la is now Mugwump Swamp.

                      Etc. and so forth.


                      Our trade bait should actually be better than what has gotten our trades in the past, since we have added a 2-bedroom Gold Crown peak season to our stable of off-season Slimey Slough studios.
                      RCI Member Since 24-Aug-1989/150-plus Exchanges***THE TIMESHARE GRIM REAPER~~~Exchanging/Searching/SW Florida/MO/AR/IA/Consumer Advocacy/Estate Planning/Sports/Boating/Fishing/Golf/Lake-living/Retirement****Sometimes ya just gotta be a dick

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by bnoble
                        You already know the explanation: RCI has decided that your trade bait, once fresh and tasty and desperately wanted by all the fish in the ocean, has spoiled. Not Good Enough. What was once shangri-la is now Mugwump Swamp.

                        Etc. and so forth.
                        The evidence would suggest that this is indeed the explanation for the step-change that occurred on 5/30. RCI recalibrated the value of weeks in its system, upgrading some and downgrading others.

                        Whether you have a Gold Crown Redder-than-Red 5-bedroom week doesn't matter if it is in Mugwump Swamp and nobody wants to go! The value of your week is entirely a factor of how many people request to use it.

                        With RCI Weeks exchangers aging (younger people are buying into the newer product, Points, as that's what is offered now at most newer timeshare resorts), and with less RCI exchangers travelling outside the US for vacation, it is highly likely that SW Florida is far more requested than before in Weeks, so all resorts there became more valuable and consequently harder to get into.

                        This gets us back to the old real estate adage, the three things that are important are Location, Location, Location.

                        Simply, if you want to go to one of the top 40% of resorts in SW Florida, you have to BUY a week at one of those places - or an equivalent strength week in an equivalently strong area, such as SoCal or Manhatten Club or some of the top Caribbean resorts (Crane, Windjammer Landing).

                        Layered on this is the other effect - that those with high quality weeks are finding that they are simply not getting value-for-money through RCI any more and are deciding to rent them out or indeed use them! Yes, that doesn't explain the step-change, but it explains the long-term trend most of us have been seeing. Also now some of the top resorts are in Registry Collection, so those weeks are no longer available as exchangers are trading through it instead to ensure a quality trade.

                        I have been a firm advocate for Weeks as I felt that I got a better week in return for my deposit. Not everyone can have that of course - statistically half of us have to get a worse week. (Reminds me of the comment by the Education Minister in I think the state of Illinois who said some years ago that she wanted 70% of the high school students to do better than average...) Now however I think that Points is probably going to be my timesharing future, as I'm just not seeing the same availability that I saw before.

                        Has RCI become fairer? Probably so, and perhaps especially so to those with highest quality weeks.

                        Time to bite the bullet and sell that beloved 2-bedroom Gold Crown peak season week in Mugwump Swamp and buy a week in a place you want to go to!

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by alanmj View Post
                          RCI recalibrated the value of weeks in its system, upgrading some and downgrading others.
                          I have been having an ongoing discussion regarding trading power and SW FL (over several years). It would be hard for it to have to continued without including 5/30. What happened was more involved than upgrading and downgrading, but everyone who pays attention to stuff like that could see that was a part of it.

                          Trying to pin it down further, I suggested that if it takes a really high-dollar, fancy, high demand deposit to get into SW FL in Snowbird Season, those folks will likely be happy camper when they find out what they get for their great deposit is a less-than-stellar, 30-year-old, cramped motel conversion. I was told that was not the case, that it does not take deposit like that.

                          Since no one seems to be seeing even a less-than-stellar, 30-year-old, cramped motel conversion in Snowbird Season, I guess not.

                          Still, what happened to the ones that no one can now see?

                          I guess if it does not raise much discontent when some who previously got something as an exchange are now being charged $1200 for it, while it is still being offered as an exchange to others, then it is not unusual that there is not much concern over stuff that has disappeared altogether.
                          RCI Member Since 24-Aug-1989/150-plus Exchanges***THE TIMESHARE GRIM REAPER~~~Exchanging/Searching/SW Florida/MO/AR/IA/Consumer Advocacy/Estate Planning/Sports/Boating/Fishing/Golf/Lake-living/Retirement****Sometimes ya just gotta be a dick

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by alanmj View Post
                            Time to bite the bullet and sell that beloved 2-bedroom Gold Crown peak season week in Mugwump Swamp and buy a week in a place you want to go to!
                            If that is the case, that exchanging is a thing of the past, then affiliates should not be allowed to use stuff like the following in order to sell TS:

                            · 88.5% of all timeshare purchases ever made by current RCI members were positively influenced by the RCI exchange opportunity, according to members. These total about 2,686,000 weeks, representing aggregate sales of an estimated $20.1 billion by developers, homeowner associations, and on-site resale companies.

                            · 38.7% of all timeshares owned by members would not have been purchased without the RCI exchange affiliation, according to members. These total approximately 1,176,000 weeks sold for an estimated $8.8 billion.

                            · 41.5% of RCI members say they would not have purchased their first timeshare without the RCI exchange affiliation. These total about 600,000 weeks sold at an estimated aggregate sales volume of $4.5 billion.

                            · Members attribute and average 24.8% of the value of their timeshares to the RCI exchange opportunity. This represents an estimated $5.7 billion of value added. Fully 94.0% of members feel the RCI affiliation adds some value.

                            · Of members who received one or more years of RCI membership with their most recent timeshare purchase, 81.6% say this was of at least some importance in their purchase decision, and 30.2% say it was “very important.”
                            RCI Member Since 24-Aug-1989/150-plus Exchanges***THE TIMESHARE GRIM REAPER~~~Exchanging/Searching/SW Florida/MO/AR/IA/Consumer Advocacy/Estate Planning/Sports/Boating/Fishing/Golf/Lake-living/Retirement****Sometimes ya just gotta be a dick

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by alanmj View Post
                              With RCI Weeks exchangers aging (younger people are buying into the newer product, Points, as that's what is offered now at most newer timeshare resorts), and with less RCI exchangers travelling outside the US for vacation, it is highly likely that SW Florida is far more requested than before in Weeks, so all resorts there became more valuable and consequently harder to get into.
                              Kinda convoluted logic, but if you are saying SW FL in Snowbird Season is a tough trade because younger people are buying in now, I'm chuckling.

                              The truth is that SW FLs Snowbird Season is a tough trade because of older timeshare owners, because there are more older timeshare owners now.

                              Have you been to SW FL Jan-Mar?
                              RCI Member Since 24-Aug-1989/150-plus Exchanges***THE TIMESHARE GRIM REAPER~~~Exchanging/Searching/SW Florida/MO/AR/IA/Consumer Advocacy/Estate Planning/Sports/Boating/Fishing/Golf/Lake-living/Retirement****Sometimes ya just gotta be a dick

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by JLB View Post
                                Kinda convoluted logic, but if you are saying SW FL in Snowbird Season is a tough trade because younger people are buying in now, I'm chuckling.
                                Nope. Not saying that at all. I am saying that people new to timesharing who are coming into the market are purchasing Points, because most new timeshare developments are Points-based.

                                People new to timesharing are on average younger than those old to timesharing... The logic is pretty straight forward.

                                Get it now?

                                And yes, of course, SW Florida is full of old folks during the Snowbird Season, which is why I don't go. But it's those who purchase who count, not those who use it.

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