Ike a Major Threat for South Texas

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After crossing western Cuba today, there is nothing over the more than 1,000 miles of open water in the Gulf of Mexico to keep Hurricane Ike from regenerating into a dangerous hurricane before making landfall in extreme South Texas.

Ike today has pummeled western Cuba and the Florida Keys despite weakening after making a second landfall on Cuba. By Wednesday, Ike will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect in western Cuba and the Florida Keys.

All residents along the central and western Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Ike, review emergency plans and prepare homes and businesses for what is expected to be a catastrophic storm.

The current path of Ike will steer it away from the majority of the offshore oil production areas of the gulf, as well as the Gulf Coast region that was targeted just over a week ago by Hurricane Gustav.

A building dome of high pressure over the central Plains will steer Ike to the west-northwest toward a landfall early on Saturday along the South Texas coast near Corpus Christi.

Texas Governor Rick Perry on Monday issued a disaster declaration for 88 counties. Perry also requested a presidential disaster declaration and put 7,500 National Guard members on standby.

Governor Perry called on state resources and Gulf Coast residents to prepare for Ike. "We continue to monitor this storm and prepare for any potential impact on our communities. I urge coastal residents to do the same and heed warnings from their local leaders to help protect their families, homes and businesses."

There are no factors in place over the gulf that will inhibit the redevelopment of Ike to a major hurricane. The warm water and lack of shear will allow the storm to regenerate to at least Category 3 strength before it makes landfall. This is one of several unusual aspects of Ike.

According to Expert Meteorologist John Kocet, it is rare for a major hurricane to weaken considerably while moving across land and then redevelop over water to an even stronger storm than before landfall.

Kocet adds that Ike has taken an unusual track since forming in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. "The southwesterly movement of Ike across the Caribbean and Cuba is rare in mid-September," said Kocet. "From this point on as far as a comparison to Ike's current position, there have been dozens of storms at this time of year that have moved from western Cuba through the Gulf."




Ike is impacting oil and natural gas operations in the gulf, even though it will not take a path through the major production areas of the north-central gulf. Shell Oil continues plans to maintain production re-established since Hurricane Gustav while evacuating most or all of Shell-operated assets by Wednesday or Thursday. In addition, repairs to some Shell-operated facilities will delay production recovery from Gustav until after Hurricane Ike has safely passed.

ExxonMobil is evacuating personnel from all offshore facilities expected to be in the path of the storm, while initiating preliminary safety procedures for weather-related situations at its Gulf Coast refineries that are still coming back online following a shut down for Hurricane Gustav.

The U.S. Minerals Management Service reports today that approximately 77 percent of the oil production and 65 percent of the natural gas production in the gulf have been shut-in.

Fox Business Channel reports that oil prices today dropped to $104 US on the news that Ike appears less likely to strike gulf energy installations and the suggestion from Saudi Arabia that OPEC will not cut output later in the day.

Cuban officials say Ike has destroyed hundreds of homes,
People unload bottles of water at a refugee center in Gonaives, Haiti, Monday, Sept. 8, 2008. Four storms have killed more than 300 people in Haiti in less than a month.
killed at least four people and forced 1.2 million to evacuate.

The death toll in Haiti continues to climb to at least 74, most killed in flooding. Ike was the fourth storm to pound the impoverished nation over the past month.

Associated Press reports that nine people died in shelters in the marooned city of Gonaives, where residents are desperate for relief supplies.

Red Cross trucks trying to reach Gonaives and Les Cayes on Haiti's southern coast had to turn back. Washed-out roads have kept many international aid efforts from leaving the capital city of Port-au-Prince.

The USS Kearsarge arrived in Port-au-Prince Monday after being rerouted from a humanitarian mission to Colombia. Helicopter crews sent ahead were unable to find places around the city that were large and secure enough to offload.

After docking in Port-au-Prince on Monday evening, amphibious craft were loaded with food for an overnight trip to Gonaives and Saint Marc.

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We're scheduled for South Padre Island over New Years. Hope it doesn't get a direct hit.

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Texas Facing Destructive Ike

AccuWeather.com - Weather Blogs - Weather News


Hurricane Ike will continue to intensify before making landfall along the Texas Gulf Coast late on Friday. The storm has the potential to cause widespread destruction.

A hurricane watch extends from Port Mansfield, Texas, to Cameron, La., as Hurricane Ike churns through the Gulf of Mexico. The storm will pose a serious threat to lives and property before making landfall late on Friday along the Texas coast between Matagorda and Galveston.

Ike redeveloped on Wednesday into a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds near 100 mph. The storm will continue to intensify as it moves to the northwest through the Gulf, possibly reaching Category 4 strength with maximum sustained winds topping 130 mph.

Ike is a massive storm, with hurricane-force winds extending 115 miles away from the center. Tropical storm-force winds reach as far as 255 miles from the eye. Tropical storm winds will graze the Louisiana coast beginning later today.
A tropical storm warning is in effect from Cameron, La., to the border of Mississippi and Alabama.


The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center reports winds and increasing surf will reach the Texas coast on Friday. A significant storm surge will flood coastal areas to the north of where Ike makes landfall, with torrential rain and the threat of tornadoes adding to the dangerous conditions.

The storm surge just to the west of the eye of the storm, including the western edge of Galveston Island, will be slammed by a 14- to 20-foot storm surge. The surge could overtop the Galveston seawall. The wall is as high as 17 feet in some areas; however, in many spots it is considerably lower.

The seawall was built following the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, considered to be the worst natural disaster in United States history. Monday marked the anniversary of the storm that killed as many as 12,000 people.


President Bush on Wednesday signed a presidential disaster declaration for 25 counties that are among the 88 counties covered by the disaster declaration issued on Monday by Texas Governor Rick Perry.

Gov. Perry on Wednesday ordered over 1,000 buses, ambulances and paramedic buses to be on standby to aid in evacuations of coastal areas. "The next few days will be crucial for residents to follow the direction of local leaders and to take the necessary steps to protect themselves and their families" said Gov. Perry.

Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued by local officials in Brazoria and parts of Matagorda County. Voluntary evacuation orders have been ordered for Galveston, San Patricio and Victoria counties and parts of Jackson County and the City of Corpus Christi.

The nation's largest oil refinery lies just outside of Houston, in Baytown. The Exxon Mobil Corporation plant was built to withstand intense winds, but water from the Galveston Bay surging into Baytown could disrupt operations. Power outages could also shut down the plant for a prolonged period.

The Minerals Management Service reported on Wednesday that offshore oil and gas operators have stopped re-manning the platforms and rigs recently evacuated before Hurricane Gustav. The fear of Ike has forced the evacuation of 452 production platforms or 63 percent of all the manned platforms in the Gulf, up by 300 the day prior.

As of the early afternoon on Wednesday, approximately 96 percent of the oil production in the Gulf has been shut-in with close to 73 percent of the natural gas production also shut-in.

The destructive winds surrounding Ike will weaken on Saturday with the storm over land. Torrential rain will continue to spark flooding as Ike this weekend curves through the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The threat for tornadoes will continue this weekend, especially on the eastern side of eastern side of the storm.

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Houston/Galveston evacuate

Texas prepares for an ominous Hurricane Ike By JUAN A. LOZANO, Associated Press Writer
39 minutes ago

Texas prepares for an ominous Hurricane Ike - Yahoo! News

HOUSTON - Authorities in the Houston area and along the Southeast Texas Gulf Coast ordered hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate Thursday as Hurricane Ike lumbered toward the coast and threatened to grow even stronger.

Traffic was building on roadways leading away from low-lying areas in Galveston County, and officials urged residents to finish storm preparations quickly. Some gas stations were running out of fuel as residents scurried to leave.

"It's a big storm. I cannot overemphasize the danger that is facing us," Gov. Rick Perry said at a news conference. "It's going to do some substantial damage. It's going to knock out power. It's going to cause massive flooding."

Forecasters issued a hurricane warning for the Texas Gulf Coast from the Louisiana state line to near Corpus Christi. The warning, which also extended east along much of the Louisiana coast to Morgan City, means hurricane conditions could reach the coast by late Friday with the front edge of the storm before its powerful center hits land over the weekend.

In Houston, gleaming skyscrapers, the nation's biggest refinery and NASA's Johnson Space Center lie in areas that could be vulnerable to wind and floodwaters if Ike crashes ashore as a major hurricane.

Ike is expected to become at least a Category 3 storm, with winds upward of 111 mph, before it comes ashore, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. Some forecasts indicate Ike could grow to a Category 4, with winds of at least 131 mph. Emergency officials warned it could drive a storm surge as high as 18 feet.

If current projections of the storm's path hold up, the area surrounding Houston — home to about 4 million people — would be lashed by the eastern or "dirty" side of the storm, said meteorologist Jeff Masters, co-founder of San Francisco-based Weather Underground. This stronger side often has punishing rains, walloping storm surge and tornadoes.

Authorities were hoping to avoid the traffic gridlock of three years ago, when Hurricane Rita threatened the area, and urged people who don't live in eight specific zip codes in the low-lying areas and near Galveston Bay to remain at home.

"We are still saying: Please shelter in place, or to use the Texas expression, hunker down," said Harris County Judge Ed Emmett, the county's chief administrator. "For the vast majority of people who live in our area, stay where you are. The winds will blow and they'll howl and we'll get a lot of rain but if you lose power and need to leave, you can do that later."

Evacuation orders were also issued for all of Jefferson and Orange counties, an area home to more than 320,000 people between Houston and the Louisiana state line, and part of San Patricio County farther south.

In Tierra Grande, a low-lying rural neighborhood, or colonia, south of Corpus Christi, residents struggled with the cost of evacuation and the strong pull to stay with their homes and animals. Few, if any, appeared to be leaving.

Diana Acevedo said she and her family considered leaving their double-wide trailer, but they had called around and it was too late to find a place to stay. Looking out at a rickety swingset and tricycle in the front yard, Acevedo said they would pick up loose items today and perhaps board windows like some of her neighbors.

"I think it's going to get really bad," she said. In previous heavy rains, water filled with sewage from flooded septic tanks has lapped near her door, more than two feet off the ground.

Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas extended a mandatory evacuation that had covered the west side of the island, unprotected by a seawall, to the entire island.

She said the city, virtually destroyed by a hurricane in 1900 that killed more than 6,000 people and remains the nation's worst natural disaster, will not open shelters. She advised those who chose to ignore the order to have supplies like food, water and medicine and secure their homes.

"This is a very hard call for me to make but our intent is to save lives," she said. "We believe it is best for people to leave."

In Louisiana, where Labor Day's Hurricane Gustav was blamed for 29 deaths, officials closed flood gates and state offices along the coast.

"Today would be a good time for folks to fuel up their cars, just to make sure they have sufficient supplies," Gov. Bobby Jindal said, adding the state corrections department had evacuated about 1,400 prisoners from Cameron and Calcasieu parishes in the state's southwest.

Ike was a Category 2 storm as of 2 p.m. EDT Thursday with top sustained winds near 100 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. It was over the Gulf's energizing warm waters about 440 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi and moving west-northwest near 10 mph after ravaging homes in Cuba and killing dozens of people in the Caribbean.

The Port of Houston, the nation's second largest port, planned to shut down operations Thursday afternoon and remain closed until Monday.

The oil and gas industry also watched the storm closely, fearing damage to the very heart of its operations.

Refineries on the upper Texas coast account for one-fifth of U.S. refining capacity. Exxon Mobil Corp.'s plant in Baytown, outside Houston, is the nation's largest refinery. Exxon Mobil, Valero Energy Corp., ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil Co. were among the companies halting operations as the storm closed in.

Refineries are built to withstand high winds, but flooding can disrupt operations and — as happened in Louisiana after Hurricane Gustav — power outages can shut down equipment for days or weeks.

Supply concerns sent wholesale gasoline prices soaring to record levels between $4 and $5 a gallon Thursday. That means retailers will pay more for gasoline, and consumers can expect hikes at the pump. How much gas prices rise, analysts say, depends largely on how long refineries remain shuttered after the storm passes.

Dow Chemical Co. was shutting down its enormous Freeport facility, home to 75 plants producing some 27 billion pounds of chemical or chemical products each year, and its 139-acre LaPorte site, said Dow spokesman David Winder.

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I hope Mike and his family are OK.

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Deadly Wall of Water Reaching Texas

Deadly Wall of Water Reaching Texas

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-...08-09-12_08:04



The wall of water being pushed through the Gulf Mexico by Hurricane Ike is already flooding Galveston, Texas.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center reports that Ike today will flood neighborhoods and entire coastal communities along the Texas Gulf Coast. The storm surge will pose the biggest threat to life and property as Ike barrels toward landfall early on Saturday.

The massive Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph covers almost all of the Gulf and is larger than Hurricane Katrina before it made landfall in 2005.

Ike is on a collision course for the upper Texas coast, with landfall forecast for early on Saturday morning between Sargent and Galveston. If Ike maintains that track, Galveston and Houston will be in the potentially lethal northeast quadrant of the storm.

While the Galveston Bay area faces the potential of widespread devastation, Ike will spread destructive wind, rain and a storm surge more than 200 miles from its center.


Ike will strengthen into a dangerous Category 3 hurricane over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds will be at least 111 mph, with higher gusts, around the wall of Ike's eye at the time of landfall.

The storm surge has already reached the Texas coast. A massive surge as high as 20 feet above normal tides will slam the coast, pushed by hurricane strength winds. The surge will threaten the seawall on Galveston Island, which is as high as 17 feet.

The western end of the island is unprotected by the seawall, and there are several spots in the city where the top of the seawall is much less than 17 feet high.

The surge will push through Galveston Bay as far north as the Houston Ship Canal, flooding the low-lying areas between Galveston and Houston.




Winds will continue to intensify through Saturday, gusting over 100 mph in Houston, Galveston and surrounding areas. Mobile homes will be demolished, most homes will suffer major damage and even homes built to withstand hurricanes could be damaged.

The skyline of Houston will be blasted by hurricane strength winds, which will cause significant glass damage. Seven out of the 10 tallest buildings in Texas are in downtown Houston.

The nation's fourth largest city is home to 7 of the 10 tallest buildings in Texas and 28 buildings that stand over 500 feet tall.

Torrential rain and tornadoes will add to the devastation from the upper Texas coast to the Mississippi Valley. As much as a foot of rain will spark dangerous flooding and flash flooding across Texas as Ike moves to the north after landfall.

More than one million people have evacuated the Texas Gulf Coast, including all of Galveston and Matagorda counties.

Galveston was virtually destroyed by a hurricane in 1900 that killed an estimated 6,000 to 12,000 people and remains the nation's worst natural disaster.

Officials in Houston ordered about 100,000 residents in low-lying areas surrounding Houston to evacuate. Harris County Judge Ed Emmett, the county's chief executive officer, urged residents in other areas of the county to remain home to prevent a repeat of the gridlock on area highways during the evacuation prior to Hurricane Rita in 2005.

"We are only evacuating areas subject to a storm surge. Yes, we know you will lose electricity. But you're not in danger of losing your life, so stay put," said Emmett.

On Thursday, Texas Governor Rick Perry announced the creation of Texas Task Force Ike. The task force is on standby in San Antonio, and will provide immediate help in the recovery process in the wake of Ike.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency, in coordination with its federal partners, is assisting Texas by providing equipment and resources, including ready-to-eat meals, drinking water, cots, blankets and tarps, at various locations around Texas.

The U.S. Coast Guard reports a freighter with a crew of 22 is adrift in the Gulf 90 miles south of Galveston. Petty Officer Thomas Blue tells AccuWeather.com the Cyprus-flagged Antalina reported early this morning that it had lost propulsion and steering.

According to P.O. Blue, the seas are too rough to send out small Coast Guard boats and the winds are near the limits for a helicopter rescue. The Coast Guard is weighing its options, but P.O. Blue says the storm may push the 584-foot freighter into shallow water where the crew can drop anchor.

NASA on Thursday closed the Johnson Space Center in Houston. Spokesman John Ira Petty told AccuWeather.com that flight control operations for the International Space Station have been transferred to facilities in Austin, Tex., and the Marshall Space Center in Huntstville, Ala.

The shut down is having an effect in space, delaying the arrival of the Russian Progress cargo ship at the International Space Station. The ship is set to deliver more than two tons of supplies, including food and fuel. Russian flight controllers will execute a maneuver to place the Progress spacecraft into a safe orbit away from the station until docking, which is planned for next Wednesday

Tropical storm-force winds today are pushing through southeastern Louisiana, including New Orleans. Sustained winds of 39 mph, the lowest end of tropical storm-force, and a wind gust of 54 mph were measured at Lakefront Airport early this morning. On Thursday, a storm surge of 5.75 feet above normal tide moved into Waveland, Miss.

The twisting motion in the atmosphere will spark tornadoes through the lower Mississippi Valley. Tornado watches and warnings are in effect today in southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

Ike is battering the oil rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. A rig to the north of the eye today has recorded a 125 mph wind gust. Oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf and refineries along the Gulf Coast are almost entirely shut down.

The U.S. Minerals Management Service reported on Thursday that personnel have been evacuated from 78 percent of the manned platforms and 77 percent of the rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

MMS says operators report approximately 97 percent of the oil production, and approximately 93.3 percent of the natural gas production in the Gulf has been shut-in. Estimated current oil production from the Gulf of Mexico is 1.3 million barrels of oil per day, while natural gas production from the Gulf of Mexico is 7.4 billion cubic feet of gas per day.

Ike will have an impact on travel, both in Texas and across the country. In a press release Thursday, Continental Airlines announced,
Waves crash behind a statue commemorating the devastating storm of 1900 as Hurricane Ike approaches the Texas coast, Friday, Sept. 12, 2008, in Galveston, Texas.
"Weather conditions may force some delays and cancellations of flights to selected cities along the Texas coast through the weekend, including at the Houston hub at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

Travelers with itineraries to, from or through the Houston hub from Friday through Saturday should consider accelerating, postponing or rerouting their trip."

The Southwest Regional News story reports that after landfall, Ike will curve around to the north, then to the northeast on a path that will bring its remnants to the Northeast by early next week.

Torrential rain will be a serious concern through the weekend. Ike will move across east Texas on Saturday, then into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday and lower Great Lakes by Monday. Flood watches and warnings are already in effect as far north as the central Mississippi Valley.

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Gas prices in my area are already edging up.. reports of $5 a gallon.

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Ike Inland; Remains Dangerous

Ike Inland; Remains Dangerous

AccuWeather.com - Weather Blogs - Weather News

Hurricane Ike officially made landfall early this morning, but remains a dangerous storm with flooding rain, destructive winds, an inundating storm surge and tornadoes. The wrath of Ike is currently pounding Houston and Galveston.

Ike officially slammed onshore at Galveston Island at 2:10 a.m. CDT. The storm was a strong Category 2 hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph.

Ike is a massive storm with hurricane-force winds extending well away from its center. From the storm's eastern eyewall, the hurricane-force winds are reaching places 125 miles away.

The storm at its peak was larger than Hurricane Katrina when it churned through the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center reports that the heavily populated corridor from Houston to Galveston is experiencing the full wrath of Hurricane Ike.

Hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings cover the upper Texas and western Louisiana coasts.

The backside of the storm is moving over Galveston Island, right around the time of high tide in Galveston Bay. The combination could be catastrophic.

The storm surge has flooded much of Galveston Island, while hurricane-strength winds are battering the office towers and condos in Houston. Officials say more than 100,000 homes in the low-lying areas between Galveston and Houston could be demolished by the storm surge and winds.

The hurricane-strength winds through this morning will cause extensive structural damage and shattered glass in the upper levels of the towers in the fourth largest city in the U.S.

A 102-mph wind gust was recorded at Anauac, found along the eastern shores of the Galveston Bay, while a 99-mph wind gust was recorded at Sea Rim State Park in Texas.

Additional wind gusts include:
Sabine Pass, La.: 95 mph
Beaumont, Texas: 87 mph
University of Houston, Texas: 80 mph
Smith Point, Texas: 58 mph
Bush Intercontinental Airport, Houston, Texas: 53 mph
The strength of the storm and the damage it has caused prevented firefighters from reaching multiple fires burning in Galveston and Houston.

The immense size of the storm and its ability to push water inland will cause damage comparable to a strong Category 4 hurricane.

Insurance experts say the value of insured property in the Houston area is nearly $1 trillion. FEMA estimates the damage could top $12 billion.

The storm slammed Louisiana less than two weeks after Hurricane Gustav decimated the state. The storm surges are close to that of Hurricane Rita in 2005.

Local levees have been breached in Terrabone Parish. Temporary water-filled tubes protecting Lafitte, La., have failed. Lafitte Mayor Tim Kerner reported six feet of water or more near the town hall. The Franklin Canal levee in Lafitte has breached and nearby nursing home residents have been evacuated.

About 1,800 homes and business are flooded in coastal Cameron Parish. Emergency preparedness director Clifton Hebert told the Associated Press the number was likely to rise.

"It's going to be devastating for people," Hebert said. "We don't have the wind that Rita brought, but we have at least the same storm surge, if not a little more."

More than 100 residents are stranded on the barrier island of Grand Isle after a storm surge cut off the only road to the mainland. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal told residents they could break into a state wildlife and fisheries lab that was deemed a safe structure, calling it "the most unusual piece of advice I might give."




Power is out along the Gulf Coast. CNN reported that 1.8 million customers of CenterPoint Energy in metropolitan Houston are without power, while the Louisiana Public Service Commission reports that more than 100,000 customers are without electricity, including some customers who lost power during Gustav.

Widespread power outages, wind damage and flooding will spread inland today. The Southwest Regional News story reports that Ike will slowly weaken as it turns to the north and then the northeast.

Ike will move across East Texas today, reaching the mid-Mississippi Valley tonight and the lower Great Lakes on Sunday.

The Midwest Regional News story reports that the remains of Ike will take a path over some areas of the central Plains that for the past two days have been slammed by heavy rain. Tornado and flood watches and warnings are in effect as far north as the western Great Lakes.

CNN reports that three deaths have already been blamed on Ike. A 10-year-old boy died when a tree limb fell onto his head north of Houston. One person drowned off the coast of Corpus Christi, while an elderly person died during evacuations.

In addition to the billions of dollars in damage, Ike will have wide ranging impacts on the nation's economy. Virtually all of the Gulf oil and natural gas production and refinery operations are shut down, including many rigs and platforms that were still coming back on line following the shut down for Hurricane Gustav.

Texas is home to 26 refineries that account for one-fourth of U.S. refining capacity.
Twenty percent of the total refining capacity in the U.S. is located along the Houston Ship Channel. Many of those refineries will be flooded by the storm surge. Between the flooding and power outages, it could take weeks for the refineries to return to full capacity.

Price gouging has been reported at gas stations across the South, with pump prices as high a $7 a gallon. North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley has signed an order allowing the Attorney General to enforce the state's anti-gouging law. South Carolina Attorney General Henry McMaster invoked a similar law for his state.

The shut down of the oil industry is having an effect in Canada. Canadian Press reports motorists were outraged and accusations of price gouging flew on Friday as gas prices soared to near-record highs in parts of Canada.

The price at a Petro-Canada station in downtown Toronto reached above $1.36 a liter, or approximately $4.85 per U.S. gallon.

Twenty-two crew members on board a disabled 584-foot freighter spent the night tossing about in the waves because winds were too dangerous for a rescue by Coast Guard helicopters.

Late Friday, the Coast Guard reported the crew was safe after weathering the brunt of the storm. A tugboat is set to arrive at the stricken vessel around noon.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry asked President Bush for a "wide-reaching emergency declaration," a move designed to secure emergency funding to help defray storm costs.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has at least 3,500 officials in Texas and Louisiana. FEMA pre-positioned more than 230 generators, 5.6 million liters of water and 5.5 million prepackaged meals ready for distribution.