I will admit to being guilty of the same question from time to time, but have finally realized it is really an effort in futility . . . and without a 12 step program!
My favorite recent spin on the age ole question came on the Aurora Borealis BBS that I joined before my trip to Fairbanks, AK last month. This post appeared on the group in early February:
I'm traveling all the way from Brasil to Fairbanks (Coldfoot) to see and photograph the Northern Lights. As this will be a long (and costly!) trip all the way up, leaving behind carnival, I would like to know if there's any way to know whether there will be auroral activity on that week (which was over three weeks away) ...
Since viewing the aurora not only counts on appropriate weather here on earth (namely clear skies), but also the solar weather millions of miles away, it was a humorous question. Sure there are forecasts based on the 28 day cycle of the earth, there is no real way to "know" more than probably 48 hours what is really possible with the solar winds and particle density flow from the sun, as well as the status of the interplanetary magnetic field that affects how easily the particles can enter earth's atmosphere.
Even with the best of predictive indicators, aurora viewing can be boom or bust with little notice.
My favorite recent spin on the age ole question came on the Aurora Borealis BBS that I joined before my trip to Fairbanks, AK last month. This post appeared on the group in early February:
I'm traveling all the way from Brasil to Fairbanks (Coldfoot) to see and photograph the Northern Lights. As this will be a long (and costly!) trip all the way up, leaving behind carnival, I would like to know if there's any way to know whether there will be auroral activity on that week (which was over three weeks away) ...
Since viewing the aurora not only counts on appropriate weather here on earth (namely clear skies), but also the solar weather millions of miles away, it was a humorous question. Sure there are forecasts based on the 28 day cycle of the earth, there is no real way to "know" more than probably 48 hours what is really possible with the solar winds and particle density flow from the sun, as well as the status of the interplanetary magnetic field that affects how easily the particles can enter earth's atmosphere.
Even with the best of predictive indicators, aurora viewing can be boom or bust with little notice.
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