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NOAA Releases 2011-2012 Winter Outlook - weather.com
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released their winter outlook for the months of December, January and February. Weather Services International (WSI), a Weather Channel Company, will release its winter outlook on Monday, October 24.
Story: La Nina - Back to Back | The La Nina Signature
However, this isn't the only climate factor expected to play a role in the weather this winter. NOAA cites the lesser known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation as a 'wild card' influence that could result in large short-term swings in temperatures this winter. According to Mike Halpert of NOAA, "The erratic Arctic Oscillation can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La Nina’s typical impacts.”
Precipitation Outlook: December - February
Unfortunately, below-average precipitation is expected across parched portions of Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Arizona. This is typical of La Nina winters throughout history, including last year.
Drier-than-average conditions are also expected in parts of the Southeast and Florida. Portions of the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama and northern Florida are already in drought, so conditions could worsen in the months ahead. Much of Florida could emerge from winter very dry just like last year, which according to NOAA, could set the stage for bad wildfire conditions.
Meanwhile, wetter-than-average conditions are forecast from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. The Pacific Northwest is one portion of the country that typically sees above-average precipitation during La Nina winters.
NOAA is also concerned about another rough spring flood season with the expectation of above-average precipitation this winter in the Northern Plains, including the Missouri River Basin and the Red River Basin.
Another part of the country that typically experiences wetter than average conditions during La Nina winters is the Ohio Valley. As you can see by the outlook map above, this winter is forecast to see above-average precipitation. Last spring we dealt with bad flooding in this region and a wet winter could set the stage for more flooding.
NOAA has given the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic an equal chance of seeing below, above or near-average temperatures and precipitation this winter.
While La Nina is not a major influence on weather in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, the Arctic Oscillation can be a big player. If the combination of enough cold air and moisture come together this winter, we could see above-average snowfall.
According to NOAA, the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation pushes cold air into the U.S. from Canada. The Arctic Oscillation went strongly negative at times the last two winters, causing outbreaks of cold and snowy conditions in the U.S. such as the “Snowmaggedon” storm of 2009. Strong Arctic Oscillation episodes typically last a few weeks and are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance.
Temperature Outlook: December - February
Above-average temperatures are expected from portions of the lower-Mississippi Valley westward to the Southern Plains and the Southwest.
Temperatures are forecast to stay below average from the Great Lakes westward to the Dakotas, Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest and the coast of California.
The combination of below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and western Montana could result in increased mountain snow.
NOAA's Alaska and Hawaii Outlook
Hawaii- Above-average temperatures are favored in the western islands with equal chances of above, near, or below-average precipitation. Statewide, the current drought is expected to continue through the winter. Drought recovery is more likely over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui.
Alaska- Colder than average over the southern half of the state and the panhandle with below average precipitation in the interior eastern part of the state.
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released their winter outlook for the months of December, January and February. Weather Services International (WSI), a Weather Channel Company, will release its winter outlook on Monday, October 24.
Story: La Nina - Back to Back | The La Nina Signature
However, this isn't the only climate factor expected to play a role in the weather this winter. NOAA cites the lesser known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation as a 'wild card' influence that could result in large short-term swings in temperatures this winter. According to Mike Halpert of NOAA, "The erratic Arctic Oscillation can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La Nina’s typical impacts.”
Precipitation Outlook: December - February
Unfortunately, below-average precipitation is expected across parched portions of Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Arizona. This is typical of La Nina winters throughout history, including last year.
Drier-than-average conditions are also expected in parts of the Southeast and Florida. Portions of the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama and northern Florida are already in drought, so conditions could worsen in the months ahead. Much of Florida could emerge from winter very dry just like last year, which according to NOAA, could set the stage for bad wildfire conditions.
Meanwhile, wetter-than-average conditions are forecast from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. The Pacific Northwest is one portion of the country that typically sees above-average precipitation during La Nina winters.
NOAA is also concerned about another rough spring flood season with the expectation of above-average precipitation this winter in the Northern Plains, including the Missouri River Basin and the Red River Basin.
Another part of the country that typically experiences wetter than average conditions during La Nina winters is the Ohio Valley. As you can see by the outlook map above, this winter is forecast to see above-average precipitation. Last spring we dealt with bad flooding in this region and a wet winter could set the stage for more flooding.
NOAA has given the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic an equal chance of seeing below, above or near-average temperatures and precipitation this winter.
While La Nina is not a major influence on weather in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, the Arctic Oscillation can be a big player. If the combination of enough cold air and moisture come together this winter, we could see above-average snowfall. According to NOAA, the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation pushes cold air into the U.S. from Canada. The Arctic Oscillation went strongly negative at times the last two winters, causing outbreaks of cold and snowy conditions in the U.S. such as the “Snowmaggedon” storm of 2009. Strong Arctic Oscillation episodes typically last a few weeks and are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance.
Temperature Outlook: December - February
Above-average temperatures are expected from portions of the lower-Mississippi Valley westward to the Southern Plains and the Southwest.
Temperatures are forecast to stay below average from the Great Lakes westward to the Dakotas, Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest and the coast of California.
The combination of below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and western Montana could result in increased mountain snow.
NOAA's Alaska and Hawaii Outlook
Hawaii- Above-average temperatures are favored in the western islands with equal chances of above, near, or below-average precipitation. Statewide, the current drought is expected to continue through the winter. Drought recovery is more likely over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui.
Alaska- Colder than average over the southern half of the state and the panhandle with below average precipitation in the interior eastern part of the state.
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