MLB Playoffs 2007 - here we go

[4ARedOctober Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close 4ARedOctober]

We also know what it feels like. Angels in '95.....just ask any Mariner fan.

Those Mets are amazing blowing a seven game lead in their division.

[philsfan Administrator Find all posts View Profile Close philsfan]

I'm rooting for the Padres tonight, the Rockies are on fire, they are scary right now.....

[4ARedOctober Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close 4ARedOctober]

Division Series broadcast times set

Division Series broadcast times set
Games, beginning Wednesday, to be aired by TBS
By Alyson Footer / MLB.com

The Official Site of Major League Baseball: News: Major League Baseball News


Start times have been set for the first round of the Major League Baseball playoffs, and fans will be able to enjoy at least two or three games every day during the opening week of the postseason.
The 2007 postseason officially begins Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET, when the winner of Monday night's Colorado-San Diego "play in" game meets the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park for Game 1 of the Division Series.

Three games will be played Wednesday. The second matchup will feature the Angels and Red Sox at Fenway Park, beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET. The Cubs and Diamondbacks will open their Division Series at 10 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix.

One Division Series begins Thursday -- the Yankees and Indians, who will meet at Jacobs Field at 6:30 p.m. ET. The other games slated for that day are Game 2 of the Rockies/Padres-Phillies series (3 p.m. ET) and the Cubs and Diamondbacks (10 p.m. ET).

Two games will be played Friday. The Yankees and Indians will play at 5 p.m. ET, and the Angels and Red Sox get the prime-time slot at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Saturday will feature two games as well. The D-backs and Cubs will gather at Wrigley Field in Chicago for a 6 p.m. ET matchup, while the Phillies will visit either the Rockies or Padres for a 9:30 p.m. ET start time.

On Sunday, the Red Sox and Angels will play in Anaheim at 3 p.m. ET. Game 3 of the Indians and Yankees series will follow at 6:30 p.m. ET.

If a Game 4 is necessary between the Diamondbacks and Cubs, the two teams will begin play at Wrigley Field on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on TNT. The Phillies and either the Rockies or Padres will play Game 4 at 10 p.m. ET, if necessary.

Monday will feature Game 4 of the Indians-Yankees series (6 p.m. ET) and the Red Sox at Angels (9:30 p.m ET). If only one game is to be played that day, game time shifts to 7:30 p.m. ET.

Game 5 is slated for Tuesday, Oct. 9, for the Rockies/Padres at the Phillies at 6:30 p.m. ET, and the Cubs at Diamondbaks at 10 p.m. ET. If one game is played, the game time will shift to 8:30 p.m. ET.

Wednesday, Oct. 10 is the final scheduled day of Divison Series play. If Game 5 is necessary that day, the Yankees and Indians will play in Cleveland at 5 p.m. ET and the Angels and Red Sox will face off at Fenway at 8:30 p.m. ET. The game time for Yankees-Indians moves to 8:30 p.m ET if only one game is to be played that day.

All Division Series games except Sunday's Arizona-Chicago game, as well as the National League Championship Series, will be televised on TBS. Game 1 of the NLCS begins on Thursday, Oct. 11. FOX will televise the American League Championship Series, which begins on Friday, Oct. 12, as well as the World Series, slated to open on Wednesday, Oct. 24.

Additional coverage surrounding the Division Series games will be provided by MLB.com and XM Radio. All Division Series games will be rebroadcast to over 200 countries and territories around the world by Major League Baseball International. NHK and JOLF Radio also will have announcing teams on-site in select cities.

[biskits Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close biskits]

The REAL season begins

Wishing all you fans that have your favorite teams in the playoffs
the best!!!!
I'll be at Fenway as the Sox hosts Red October's Angels Wednesday night


GO RED SOX!!!!

[4ARedOctober Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close 4ARedOctober]

OMG......Wow....did you watch that SD vs. Colorado game????? 13th inning Padres up by 2 and Trevor 'Hells Bells' Hoffman gives it up....but then a blown call on the winning run by Umpire McClellen...a correct non-call then hesitant call safe....Matt Holliday was out.

Amazing. Oh well congrats to the Rockies.

I just hate when a bad call ends it. Please reference:

Doug Eddings Is A Douche

ESPN - Umpire: I should have made stronger call - MLB

Pearly Gates: Archive: October 2005

[JWC Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close JWC]

Go Angels!!!

[T. R. Oglodyte Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close T. R. Oglodyte]

OMG......Wow....did you watch that SD vs. Colorado game????? 13th inning Padres up by 2 and Trevor 'Hells Bells' Hoffman gives it up....but then a blown call on the winning run by Umpire McClellen...a correct non-call then hesitant call safe....Matt Holliday was out.

Amazing. Oh well congrats to the Rockies.

Here is the win expectancy chart for that game. This one is probably one of the all-time leaders for the most aggregate variations.



For those not familiar with Win Expectancy, this represents what a given teams probability is of winning a game at the start of each at bat. It's simply based on years of game play. At the start of game each team's probability of winning is 50%. A home team, down two runs as they come to bat in extra innings historically has rallied to win only about 8.8% of the time.

[T. R. Oglodyte Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close T. R. Oglodyte]

A strong argument can be made that this game was lost when the Padres lost both Mike Cameron and Milton Bradley in that game last week.

CF is one of the most difficult positions in baseball, and defense remains a significant part of the game.

[4ARedOctober Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close 4ARedOctober]

Steve, where do you get that chart? Do they do it real time? I know you had posted it before but I cannot find that link.

I agree about the outfield.....that makes me worry about the Angels as we are missing 2/3 of our starting outfield due to injury. Even if they play they will be limited. Gary Matthews Jr. at full strength is usually good for a run, two or more with his spectacular defense.

If you want to see the play and blown call for Matt Holliday's winning run they have it on the front page at mlb.com right now. Holliday went all out and his face bounces off the dirt several times with his head first slide.

The Official Site of Major League Baseball: Homepage

[T. R. Oglodyte Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close T. R. Oglodyte]

Steve, where do you get that chart? Do they do it real time? I know you had posted it before but I cannot find that link.

I agree about the outfield.....that makes me worry about the Angels as we are missing 2/3 of our starting outfield due to injury. Even if they play they will be limited. Gary Matthews Jr. at full strength is usually good for a run, two or more with his spectacular defense.

If you want to see the play and blown call for Matt Holliday's winning run they have it on the front page at mlb.com right now. Holliday went all out and his face bounces off the dirt several times with his head first slide.

The Official Site of Major League Baseball: Homepage

The chart is from Fangraphs: Baseball Stats, Graphs, Analysis | Fan Graphs. I don't think they update in real time but with the tools available you could easily track it in real time yourself.

*****

I'm not sure what you're saying about Gary Matthews here. If you're saying that Gary Matthews' defense is generally worth about one to two runs over the course of a playoff series (let's say a six game set), you are way off.

A really good defensive center fielder over the course of an entire season saves about ten runs as compared with an average CF. An elite CF saves about 20 runs over a season. So saying that Gary Matthews typically saves one to two runs per 6 games with his glove, is like saying he is the greatest defensive CF that ever lived, and there isn't anyone that is even close. It's the same as saying he could strike out every single at bat, and he would still be the most valuable player in baseball.

In actuality. though, Matthews is probably the worst regular CF in the AL. By far the most important factor for an OF is range. In the last decade or so, sufficient work has been done in baseball to evaluate the defensive skills of players based on their ability to turn balls in play into outs. The evaluation is based on where balls are hit on the field and how hard they are hit. Using that information we can now make credible evaluations of defenders based on how effective they are in making plays on balls hit into their area of the field. That includes catching fly balls and cutting off grounders.

Based on that data, Matthews has the worst range of any regular CF in the AL. Most of Matthews' web gems happen on balls that most CFs in the AL would catch with ease. In essence, Gary Matthews is the center field equivalent of Derek "Past a Diving" Jeter.

****

This is all statistical averages though, and there will be certain games in which a particular player's skill (or lack thereof in the case of the Padres) will result in one or runs being scored or surrendered. In probability, in 80% - 90% of Padres games the lack of a decent CF wouldn't have mattered because there wouldn't have been any plays in which the difference would be discernible, or if there were misplays or non-plays those plays wouldn't have affected the outcome. It just happened that the game yesterday was one of the ones where the difference did matter greatly.

[tennisWalt Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close tennisWalt]

Tony Gwynn Jr did it to the Padres!

A strong argument can be made that this game was lost when the Padres lost both Mike Cameron and Milton Bradley in that game last week.

CF is one of the most difficult positions in baseball, and defense remains a significant part of the game.

September 29, 2007

ESPN - Padres wait to clinch playoff spot after 11-inning loss - MLB

Tony Gwynn Jr., son of the Hall of Famer whose statue stands outside the Padres' ballpark, hit a tying, two-out triple off Trevor Hoffman in the ninth inning and the Milwaukee Brewers beat San Diego 4-3 in the 11th on Saturday.

Trevor Hoffman needed just one strike to finish off a 3-2 win but gave up a tying triple to Tony Gwynn Jr., the son of the Padres Hall of Famer, and Milwaukee won it in the 11th on Vinny Rottino's RBI single.

"It is quite ironic that it was Junior," Padres manager Bud Black said.

The Padres were a strike away from their third straight playoff trip when Gwynn struck. It was another odd twist in what has been a strange final week of the season for San Diego, which is assured of at least a tie for the NL wild-card spot.


And then Sunday's game wasn't even close as Milwaukee pushed across two in the fourth, chased Tomko during a four-run fifth and added three more in the sixth on a bases-loaded triple by Gabe Gross.

Walt

[4ARedOctober Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close 4ARedOctober]

Just added a poll to this thread - please vote ASAP.

[4ARedOctober Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close 4ARedOctober]

I think I will take Mike Sciocia's and the Angels pitching staff's view of the situation. We are more than happy with GMJ in CF......whether any stat head thinks he is the worst AL center fielder or not does not matter. Go talk to Beane about it while he and all the great CF's on the other 10 AL teams who didn't make the post season watch from their bar stools while playing with their spread sheets and spray charts thinking only 'what if'.

Many Angel fans a were not too happy with the acquisition of GMJ. GMJ made believers out of us this season. We had been lacking range in the outfield for some time since we had a great one in Erstad who was injury prone and had to move to first base because of those injuries. The range of our outfield is not great to begin with including Anderson (do we have a pulse) and Vlade (use two hands please). GMJ more than made up for it. We witnessed first hand through this entire season how GMJ saved runs, stopped runners from advancing, and played some great defense.

Is he the best CF?....not what I was claiming at all. But he is/was and integral part of our defense and will surely be missed. Putting his absence and its impact into context includes looking at who is replacing him....rookie Reggie Willits. The difference between what GMJ has been able to do and what we will hopefully get from RW definitely could hurt us....hopefully not. Could he have saved one or two runs for us over the five games in the ALDS....well we wont know as he is not on the roster. But he definitely could have....we have seen him save more than one run in one game in the regular season....and he definitely would have made a difference in the post season every out is precious as is every base runner.



.....Scioscia adjusts: He's nothing if not adaptable, but this was not what Scioscia had in mind when he arrived at Fenway Park hoping Matthews would be his center fielder and Colon would be in the bullpen.

"We've had to play without Gary for some stretches," Scioscia said. "He's a big part of what we did in the summer to get here. We have to figure out what to do with some of the depth we have, as we have all year.

"Our depth has gotten us here, and it's going to have to get us through it."

Matthews was having a strong offensive season before slipping into a late slump related to injuries to the knee and a sprained ankle. His primary value is in center, where he has saved countless runs for the pitching staff.

"The defense he brings has been a constant and has made us a better club," Scioscia said. "Even when he hasn't been swinging the way he can, his defense has been consistent. We're going to have to get it from other people."

That would be Willits and Haynes, rookies on the spot. Both have speed and the ability to handle the position, but neither has Matthews' experience or pedigree.

The Official Site of The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: News: Los Angeles Angels News

*****

I'm not sure what you're saying about Gary Matthews here. If you're saying that Gary Matthews' defense is generally worth about one to two runs over the course of a playoff series (let's say a six game set), you are way off.

A really good defensive center fielder over the course of an entire season saves about ten runs as compared with an average CF. An elite CF saves about 20 runs over a season. So saying that Gary Matthews typically saves one to two runs per 6 games with his glove, is like saying he is the greatest defensive CF that ever lived, and there isn't anyone that is even close. It's the same as saying he could strike out every single at bat, and he would still be the most valuable player in baseball.

In actuality. though, Matthews is probably the worst regular CF in the AL. By far the most important factor for an OF is range. In the last decade or so, sufficient work has been done in baseball to evaluate the defensive skills of players based on their ability to turn balls in play into outs. The evaluation is based on where balls are hit on the field and how hard they are hit. Using that information we can now make credible evaluations of defenders based on how effective they are in making plays on balls hit into their area of the field. That includes catching fly balls and cutting off grounders.

Based on that data, Matthews has the worst range of any regular CF in the AL. Most of Matthews' web gems happen on balls that most CFs in the AL would catch with ease. In essence, Gary Matthews is the center field equivalent of Derek "Past a Diving" Jeter.

****

This is all statistical averages though, and there will be certain games in which a particular player's skill (or lack thereof in the case of the Padres) will result in one or runs being scored or surrendered. In probability, in 80% - 90% of Padres games the lack of a decent CF wouldn't have mattered because there wouldn't have been any plays in which the difference would be discernible, or if there were misplays or non-plays those plays wouldn't have affected the outcome. It just happened that the game yesterday was one of the ones where the difference did matter greatly.

[T. R. Oglodyte Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close T. R. Oglodyte]

Before you so quickly dismiss the contributions of numerical analysis, you might want to pause for a moment and consider which teams in baseball make the heaviest use numerical analysis.

Those teams would be:

• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Cleveland Indians
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Oakland Athletics
• Arizona Diamondbacks

Three years I would have included the Blue Jays on the list but Ricciardi has taken a left turn. I threw the Cardinals in there, but I could have as easily left them off. They're in the middle of a big internal fight, and the traditionalists (represented by LaRussa and Jocketty) are on their way out. I included them in the list and left out Toronto because St. Louis and Toronto are moving in opposite directions. I also couldn't decide whether to include San Diego or not. I left them off because while Towers seems at times to incline that direction, he doesn't really seem to me to be that committed to it.

Nevertheless, teams embracing those analytical tools and using them to make decisions are clearly overall more successful as a group than are the teams that eschew or minimize those approaches. And the gap is growing.

IMHO - the teams that don't make full use of available information to make better decisions are simply stupid. (And that includes the Seattle Mariners.)

Let's say I were trying to develop a profile of what types of cars and drivers have the highest speeding rates on a certain stretch of road. I could hire a bunch of people to observe cars driving on the roadway, estimate the speed, try to note the characteristics of the drivers, etc. From that I might make some decisions.

Or, in addition to the paid observers, I could put in a camera and radar detector to measure vehicle speeds and capture images. I could compare that data with the reports and filed by my observers and see which observers are most reliable in their observations. I could extract additional info on time of day, vehicle type, cross reference with license plate information, etc.

********

For the life of me, I can't understand why people in baseball think it is such a stupid and pointless exercise to collect actual hard numeric data and add that information into decision making.

As the list above shows, the teams that aren't afraid to do that are beginning to lap the field.

****

I'm not saying teams can't be successful hewing closely to the "old school" ways. There isn't a more traditionalist organization around than the Twins, and they've been pretty successful. The Mariners had a time in the sun five or six years ago. The Angels are currently riding high. Gillick has the Phillies in the playoffs. The Braves have had more success in the last 20 years than any organization in baseball.

But the pendulum is swinging. The dregs of baseball are almost entirely occupied by old school teams who can't pr won't figure out how to spend money effectively, and the teams that are learning how to integrate are steadily advancing.

[biskits Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close biskits]

Beckett AL Cy Yound Award Winner???

Hey Red O...Whats with Lackey???With 19 wins, he's obviously a force to be reckoned with in the AL...but boy, do the Sox have his number at Fenway!!!!
I believe his ERA at the Fens is over 8...
The Angels should have saved him for game 3 at Disneyland. And unfortuately for him, he went up against the pitcher who should be the AL Cy Young winner this year. Beckett was awesome!!! You could see the movement on his pitches from the stands... 77 strikes - 4 hits - no walks
First Red Sox pitcher to throw a complete shutout game in the playoffs since Louie Tiant in 1975.
Hope you get to use your tickets Monday night!!!
Anyone think Cleveland has a chance against the Evil Empire?????

Go Indians!!!!GO SOX!!!!