MLB Playoffs 2007 - here we go

[T. R. Oglodyte Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close T. R. Oglodyte]

This should be a great series in that both teams have good starting rotations and solid bullpens.
Looking at regular season, Boston won 5 and lost 2 vs Indians
Sox BA against Cle was .282 vs Clevelands .223 vs Sox
Against each other, Sox's OPS is .799 vs Cleveland's .651
In almost all categories, Sox's stats make them the favorite to win
My prediction: Sox win series in 6 games
I'll be there for game 1!!!!!


GO SOX

regular season records mean virtually nothing. Consider the following.

During the regular season Cleveland and Boston had identical records - 96-55. They compiled those records playing all teams in baseball.

Now let's grant for a moment that Boston may have a tougher schedule, so their 96-win season is more significant than Cleveland's. But what if Boston and Cleveland had played only each other.

Since the competition would have been tougher, neither team would have won as many games. And if Boston were arguably better, we would expect them to win more than half the games. How many more - maybe in stead of winning 96 games maybe Boston wins about 88 games instead, a swing of e total wins (and I think that's being generous to Boston).

Eighty-eight wins is a .543 winning "percentage". If your run the odds, that means that in any five game series, the odds of the Red Sox winning the series is only 58%, which isn't that far from an even situation.

The fact that one team might have compiled a good record against another team during the season really doesn't mean that much. Boston went 5-2 against Cleveland during the season, which is a winning percentage of .714. I don't think anyone would conclude from that that Boston would have won 71.4 of their games had they only played Cleveland during the season.

IOW - we all know that in a small number of games anything can happen statistically.

****

What is more important, though, is how the roster is constructed. A mediocre team with two great starting pitchers will fare better in the playoffs than during the regular season because a short series maximizes their strengths and minimizes a characteristics that is a big weakness during the season.

And despite all of the talk about veteran presence, I believe that teams that are younger perform better in the playoffs because younger bodies hold up better over the strains of a long season. Also, young players are in a stage of their career in which their skills are improving, even over a season.

A 24-year old who compiles a .300 batting average over a season is likely to have been a .290 hitter at the start of the season, but a .310 hitter at the end of the season. The reverse is often true of veterans.

[JWC Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close JWC]

I see that Steinbrenner is reverting back to his old ways. It was just a matter of time. I met Steinbrenner and had some dealings with him back in the early 80's. He can be quite charming to your face but is really quite a jerk.

I agree that Joe Torre is definitely one of the great managers and a real class act. I also think that Derek Jeter is a class act.

You cannot predict a short series based on statistics. Either team can win. They are both playing well. The NL championship series should be pretty good. It can also go either way.

[Elan Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Elan]

Steve, Elan & Red, (sorry to just quote you Elan, I couldn't get the multiquote thingie going).
I didn't respond right away as it had the potential to become contentious and I've never gone that route here on the sports desk. Let's keep it sportsman/womanlike.
Your assumptions have missed the mark. A lot of the Evil Empire "movement" was spawned because of Steinbrenner's lack of class and basic steamrolling $$$$ over teams to get "the best team that money can buy" for years past. Yes, I know, I know, the Sox have starting spending that kind of cash now for pitching, but that is a recent (since the '04 World Series) anomaly.
I have said on this and other sites for years that Joe Torre and Derek Jeter are some of the classiest players in the galaxy. Steinbrenner's words against Torre are indefensible. Torre is one of the winningest coaches around and is the heart & soul of the Yankees. His threats against Torre are truly classless and evoke images him as the head of an evil empire.
If Torre gets sacked, I hope other players who are eligilble, look elsewhere.
So, Connie/Grest, Biskits, SusieQ - any thoughts ?
B.

Go Sox !

My point, which I firmly stand by, is that Red Sox fans still referring to the Yankees as the "Evil Empire" reeks of hypocrisy. I don't care that the Sox fans don't like the Yankees. I'm down with that. There are numerous similar rivalries in baseball. It's not something that's unique to the Northeast.

But let's not kid ourselves that the Red Sox are much, if any, different than the Yankees when viewed objectively. They've built their team the same way as the Yankees -- via massive spending -- with the Matsuzaka signing fiasco the coup de grace. And it's not just pitching. Have you forgotten about your $14.4M/yr starting right fielder? That's Bonds/Guerrero (MVP) money for a guy that's had 2 decent years in his 8 seasons in the big's.

The $ figures speak for themselves...........

[Beaglemom3 Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Beaglemom3]

My point, which I firmly stand by, is that Red Sox fans still referring to the Yankees as the "Evil Empire" reeks of hypocrisy. I don't care that the Sox fans don't like the Yankees. I'm down with that. There are numerous similar rivalries in baseball. It's not something that's unique to the Northeast.

But let's not kid ourselves that the Red Sox are much, if any, different than the Yankees when viewed objectively. They've built their team the same way as the Yankees -- via massive spending -- with the Matsuzaka signing fiasco the coup de grace. And it's not just pitching. Have you forgotten about your $14.4M/yr starting right fielder? That's Bonds/Guerrero (MVP) money for a guy that's had 2 decent years in his 8 seasons in the big's.

The $ figures speak for themselves...........

Yes, we've started to spend big buckos as of late, but that wasn't the case for years. Simply put, we didn't have the dough as we were always snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, ergo, no ringing endorsements, Fenway was rarely filled, etc. in days past. With the 2004 win, things have changed.
Again, this spending of cash pales in comparisonthe outspending by Steinbrenner over the years. We simply didn't have it as we always came up short.
14.4 is a nominal sum by today's standards.

But, it's not only about cash and that's your argument. The Evil Empire moniker is a summation of all sorts of negative things for RSN, not only the former outspending, but Steinbrenner's antics, the black cloud that pervaded the Hub when we were trounced by them and our inablility (until 2004) to shake off the "bully". 2004 was like the character in "Christmas Story" when he finally beats up his nemesis.

It's not a one $$$dimensional phenomenon. Many layers here. Trust me, I've been a Sox fan since I sat in those bleachers as a little girl.

Late edit: RSN aren't the only ones who refer to the NYY as the EE.

Let's agree to disagree here.

B.

[Elan Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Elan]

14.4 is a nominal sum by today's standards.

B.

I doubt you'll find many D'Rays fans (team payroll = 1.7 JD Drews) who agree.

Let's agree to disagree here.

B.

That works for me!

[tennisWalt Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close tennisWalt]

And The Winner Is.............!

So who is the winner? High Salaries? or Low Salaries?

Walt

Chicago Cubs Salaries $104,183,289

Arizona Diamondbacks Salaries $56,947,546

Colorado Rockies Salaries $53,274,000

Philadelphia Phillies Salaries $99,773,213




Boston Red Sox Salaries $143,523,714

Los Angeles Angels Salaries $104,518,833

New York Yankees Salaries $212,806,

Cleveland Indians Salaries $66,520,667


Walt

MLB Team Salaries | MLB Division Salaries | MLB 2007 Salaries

[T. R. Oglodyte Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close T. R. Oglodyte]

Smart GMs are figuring out that signing free agents is a horribly inefficient - and even ineffective way - to build a championship team. The number of players who are free agents that can make a big difference are few and far between. Often the big name players who become free agents are guys whose best years are behind them - they get signed to long-term, large contracts and within a year or two are dragging down their team's performance.

Free agent signings can be very effective if a team is missing one component and that component and is available as a free agent. Free agent is a bad way to construct a team.

Even the Yankees have figured that one out. Notice that they period when they went absolutely hog wild on free agent signings coincides with the period when they stopped dominating baseball. They were at their strongest when they built a core group of players from within, then supplemented that core with strategic acquisitions. And that is a model wo which they are currently returning.

*****

The teams in baseball that are having the least success are the teams that overvalue veteran players and veteran experience and eschew using younger "unproven" players in favor of lesser talented "veteran" players.

[tennisWalt Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close tennisWalt]

Milwaukee Brewers Salaries 2007

IMHO the players below marked with a XX did not live up to there salaries and I also think they will not be back with the Brewers in 2008.

Corey Koskie, has been fighting post-concussion syndrome for over a year and a half. The Brewers got 257 AB from him for over 13 million dollars in a 2 year period.

AB HR AVG RBI R SB
257 12 .261 33 29 1

But then Prince needs to get paid more. In fact Prince Fielder $415,000, Corey Hart $395,000, J.J. Hardy $400,000, and Ryan Braun are all under paid.

Walt


Milwaukee-Brewers Player Salaries | Milwaukee-Brewers Salaries List | 2007 Milwaukee-Brewers Team Salary


Ben Sheets $11,125,000
Geoff Jenkins $7,333,333 XX
Corey Koskie $6,750,000 XX
Jeff Suppan $6,250,000
Francisco Cordero $5,425,000
Johnny Estrada $3,400,000
Kevin Mench $3,400,000 XX
Tony Graffanino $3,250,000 XX
Chris Capuano $3,250,000
Bill Hall $3,125,000
Craig Counsell $2,800,000 XX
Claudio Vargas $2,500,000
Derrick Turnbow $2,470,667
Damian Miller $2,250,000
Scott Linebrink $2,150,000
Rickie Weeks $1,320,000
Matt Wise $1,050,000
Brian Shouse $975,000
Dave Bush $450,000
Prince Fielder $415,000
J.J. Hardy $400,000
Greg Aquino $399,000
Gabe Gross $398,000
Laynce Nix $390,000
Carlos Villanueva $384,500
Tony Gwynn $381,000
Total Team Salary: $72,436,500

[T. R. Oglodyte Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close T. R. Oglodyte]

Dave Cameron, an internet friend and passing personal acquaintance, and former writer at Baseball Prospectus, opines that the 2007 playoffs mark the rise of the post-Moneyball era in baseball (he dubs it Moneyball 2.0):

In 1998, John Hart was the General Manager of the Cleveland Indians, who were winning another division title in the middle of a mini-dynasty. His Assistant General Manger was a man named Dan O’Dowd, who had worked his way up through the ranks in 1988. The Assistant Director of Scouting was Josh Byrnes. And the current Cleveland GM, Mark Shapiro, was the Director of Minor League Operations that year.

John Hart had three of the four GMs in the 2007 LCS working for him in the same front office that year. It gets better. When Dan O’Dowd was hired by the Colorado Rockies in 2000 to be their GM, he took Josh Byrnes with him, giving him an Assistant General Manager role. Byrnes stayed in that job for three years before taking an Asst. GM job with the Boston Red Sox, working for Theo Epstein - the GM of the other team alive in the 2007 LCS. After several years in Boston, the Arizona Diamondbacks handed him the reigns of their organization.

Byrnes worked with Shapiro and O’Dowd, then for O’Dowd, and then for Epstein. These four organizations are all intertwined by the people who they have put in charge in the last decade. And they all have one singular goal in common - to gather as much information as possible and put it to use in the best possible ways in order to win baseball games. Cleveland, Arizona, Colorado, and Boston aren’t true “Moneyball” organizations - they’re Moneyball 2.0 clubs, the ones who have successfully integrated both scouting and statistical analysis into a cohesive organization and are leveraging every good piece of information they can find into a competitive advantage.

…

This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going. The John Hart family tree has branched out even beyond the Billy Beane family tree - the Pirates just hired Neil Huntington from the Indians, and Shapiro’s right hand man, Chris Antonetti, can essentially pick whatever job he wants whenever he decides to run a franchise. With Andrew Friedman as something of a second cousin down in Tampa along with Kevin Towers and Doug Melvin as the crazy uncles over in San Diego and Milwaukee, this is no longer a cute theory about how the Oakland A’s are winning with a small payroll. This is the 21st century of baseball management.

[grest Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close grest]

A couple of things...first of all, when I think of the EE, it is certainly not about money, though I many times envied their purse in the past. It is also my understanding that the Sox have a lot to spend, not nearly the amount of the Yankees, but plenty compared to other less fortunate teams....we have been there. For me, EE is about an attitude, one that perhaps some think about the RSN as well. It is a feeling that began as a child, with my dad cheering hard for the Sox, as hard against the Yankees. Some in my family were pinstripes fans, and resented the Red Sox as much. The years went by and, well, the Yankees being both winning and pompous got to me, that's for sure. I'd had enough, and we simply couldn't seem to beat them. And they kept reminding us about Babe Ruth and all the mistakes we made...You see where EE comes from for me. Actually, I really like Torre, and Jeter is amazing as a person. I hate that Johnny left us for the Yankees, but like him a lot too...it's more a team thing.
Secondly, the team I cheer for when the Sox aren't the opponent are indeed the Devil Rays. I've had tons of experience with a team that just can't get there, and now that I live nearby, I get to quite a few of their games. It's a joy also to watch Lugo play for the Sox.
GO SOX, GO DEVIL RAYS! As for fans of other teams, good for you...it's the competition that keeps us going.
Connie

[4ARedOctober Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close 4ARedOctober]

Evil Empire: New York Yankees

Wanna-be Evil Empire: Boston Red Sox

It's simple. No hard feelings. Each team has its share of good fans and horrible fans.

Did I mention way to go Cleveland!!!!!.....and Go Cleveland.

[JWC Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close JWC]

What about those Rockies. they have won 19 out of their last 20 games now. They could well turn out to be the Cinderella team this year though there is still a long way to go.

I hope that Cleveland wins the AL pennant.

[Beaglemom3 Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Beaglemom3]

Well, one down, three to go.
The Indians still look strong.
Go SOX !!!!!!

[GrayFal Silver Contributor and supermoderator Find all posts View Profile Close GrayFal]

Well, one down, three to go.
The Indians still look strong.
Go SOX !!!!!!

Ya mean they're still playing baseball????

[Beaglemom3 Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Beaglemom3]

Ya mean they're still playing baseball????

How true !
Looks like a pre-Thanksgiving World Series !