Whither the euro?

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

Greece may run out of money and go bankrupt on Aug. 20

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...August-20.html

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

Economists: Europe sleepwalking toward disaster:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...conomists.html

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

The impact of tax increases

http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoo...usic-euro-boy/

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

Spanish political leader floats euro exit:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...statesman.html

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

Euro has at most two years left

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48314618

This guy is on the long side of most analysts.

[ace2000 Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close ace2000]

Euro has at most two years left

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48314618

This guy is on the long side of most analysts.

The key is that he states "in it's current form". As much as you want the euro to go away, it'll still be around for a long time.

From the article:

Two years maximum is my perception of the time the euro zone has left to survive in its current form...

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

I think you have hit the main problem with the euro. There are too many dissimilar economies wrapped up into one. A smaller common currency over countries with more closely connected economic cycles, like say Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands, may work, for example.

The key is that he states "in it's current form". As much as you want the euro to go away, it'll still be around for a long time.

From the article:

Two years maximum is my perception of the time the euro zone has left to survive in its current form...

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

Interesting interview:

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/vide...rd_inning.html

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

A view from the far left:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/op...ebee.html?_r=1

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

September may be critical:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48349025

[ace2000 Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close ace2000]

So, how long will we be talking about the endgame? Seriously, this saga has so much more to go. It is not on the edge of a cliff yet.

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

Eurozone crisis can't be avoided much longer:

http://business.time.com/2012/07/30/...y-much-longer/

[ace2000 Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close ace2000]

Some analysts have rather frightening opinions. Here is one of them:

Prepare For Europe Collapse Before New Year - Seeking Alpha

Here is another one:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45251717

Which imminent collapse should we believe, the last one you posted or these posted a year ago?

[Carolinian Super Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Carolinian]

More discussion in Spain about peseta default:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...ault-in-spain/

[MaryH Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close MaryH]

To really get someone out of debt, they have to cut spending or increase income.

In the case of Greece and Italy, the tax evasion is rampant. If they can close the loopholes allowing tax evasion or redirect some of the gov't employees to collections, it could increase tax income and close the gap on the deficit.

Greece and Italy had a lot of cheap money due to the Euro and had a party on it. Now the new government do not have the political will to do any of the items such as downside the bloated government, going down to 12 months pay rather than the 13 or 14 months in Greece or raise the retirement age. When I was in Germany, some German colleague was saying that
"if I only get 12 months pay and I have to work to mid 60s, why should Greece retire at 59 and get extra months of pay?"

The banks holding some of the debt is not totally blameless. Some was counting on the german / ECB guarantee or defense of the Euro, implied as it may be, and went for the additional payout of the higher yield countries, thinking it is with minimal risks.

This gives the situation where countries without strong economies basically got credit cards with "parental EU" guarantees / influence and went crazy like a teenager or young adult and got into debt. But some are not willing to take responsibility and work to find solutions to get themselves out but stick their hand out for the "parental EU" bailout. This is a recipe for disaster.

I do think the EU was hugely flawed in that they let in many countries with weak economies. Greece is basically a tourist economy but with the increase in cost after the EU, they become less attractive. Euro was talking about extending the monetary union over time to Turkey, many Central European countries such as Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, etc. without fiscal integration which is a recipe for disaster since the economies have different speeds.

Remember the introduction of the Euro, Euro fell initially to be 1 Euro for about .83 or .85 USD. Then it rise up to more than 1.60 USD I think at its height, when the Real Estate bubble was at its height.

Greece probably should exit the Euro. Italy and Spain at least have some industry but Greece really don't so they cannot grow their way out of it. Greek tourism would be more attractive if the cost is lower.